A QB who's still struggling in Year 5 after getting drafted #1 overall. A rebounding starting RB who nonetheless is seeing much fewer targets compared to his 2023 peak. A #1 WR playing like a #2. A high-priced rookie #2 WR playing like a #3. A starting TE who's barely rosterable in the deepest leagues.
This is the 4-1 Jaguars, which (outside of Travis Etienne) lacks any must-start players. One could argue Brian Thomas Jr. is must-start with much-needed (slight) momentum. But last year he had 8+ targets in more than half his games. This year he's done it only once. And Lawrence's huge outburst (thanks to two rushing scores) pushes him into the top 20 alongside Tua Tagovailoa. But he has a long way to go to match my preseason QB11 ranking, and he hasn't shown enough "oomph" through the air to push his floor inside the top 16.
Who can you buy low? Probably no one substantial. Those rostering Etienne probably see an unquestioned bellcow with top-8 upside. Those rostering Thomas probably won't bail on him unless they get close to ADP value. They could effectively argue that Thomas led all Jags in targets (even though it was only six). His rest-of-season floor probably is higher than his current stats.
The Chiefs are more complex because there are more moving parts, starting with a three-man backfield co-led by TD-dependent Isiah Pacheco and equally TD-dependent Kareem Hunt. The latter earned both RB rushing scores last night. That doesn't make him an automatic waiver target. The last time he's had 2+ rushing scores in two or more games in a season was in 2018. Most of that time, he was his team's clear-cut starter. Now he has only about 8-10 touches to get the job done. I don't love those odds.
Through the air, Patrick Mahomes is now the overall QB2. Today's podcast episode explores why he's clicking better with his receivers than during his relatively "down" 2023 and 2024 campaigns. And remember, his late-season schedule is favorable: weeks 13-16 are against the Cowboys, Texans, Chargers, and Titans.
But the receiving corps is as confusing as the backfield. Discussed this on a podcast episode last week. Who can we trust? Even after his nice night, Travis Kelce is only the TE10 in points per game, making him a fringe weekly starter. New England cast-off Tyquan Thornton is suddenly leading all KC wideouts with 11.6 fantasy points per contest. Maybe things will clear up when Rashee Rice returns. Or maybe this will remain a spread-the-ball offense with Rice (and/or Worthy) serving as "should-starts" rather than must-starts. Rough for managers.
A final word on their backfield. Rookie Brashard Smith had only four touches, but three of them were catches. He had 108 receptions in college, and some might believe he could eventually assume a Jerick McKinnon role. However, unlike McKinnon, he had a hugely imbalanced collegiate career. 76% of his touches came in his senior season. Among the 800+ RBs who entered the league since 1999, 16 seventh-rounders had a college season that accounted for 60%+ of their career college touches. These 16 have averaged 54 career fantasy points.
I wouldn't go overboard adding Smith, especially in dynasty.
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* Today's FF4W podcast, episode 77: "Patrick Mahomes" -- Why Patrick Mahomes’ 2023 and 2024 “struggles“ might have been due partly to receiver turnover, and why greater stability in 2025 has helped return him to elite form.