Some RBs can get hurt, miss a game or two or four or eight, and then retake the starting job when they return. Others clearly can't, or at least "don't." And some struggling RBs lose ground to handcuffs, while others don't. Can this be at least somewhat predicted? Not sure, but it's worth briefly exploring.
One factor clearly is the quality of the backup. Tyrone Tracy began the year as the Giants' starter and had an RB ADP seven spots better than rookie Cam Skattebo. Tracy missed a couple games, Skattebo crushed it, and now Tracy's the 1B on a 2-5 team with little room for error.
The 4-3 Panthers experienced something similar, with the more seasoned Chuba Hubbard missing time, and backup Rico Dowdle crushing it twice in a row. But on Sunday, the returning Hubbard went toe-to-toe with Dowdle -- not on production, but on touches, despite the fact that Dowdle clearly looks better.
Why? One reason might be how the Panthers run their offense. They're averaging 25.7 RB carries per game vs. 22.7 for the Giants. They're also averaging six fewer pass attempts than the Giants. Carolina has a far more RB-heavy scheme, which might necessitate keeping Hubbard heavily involved, so that Dowdle -- who had 274 touches last season after never exceeding 148 in college (as a freshman) -- isn't overworked ahead of a longshot-yet-somehow-doable playoff push.
Then there's Minnesota, where 30-year-old Aaron Jones was coming off an all-time-high 322-touch campaign. In a mirror image of the Giants, Jones's ADP was seven spots ahead of Jordan Mason. Jones had the advantage of being a long-established starter, as well as the disadvantage of being on the downside of his career.
Like Dowdle and Skattebo, Mason has outplayed Jones. But Jones's impending return will set up an interesting (or frustrating if you have Jones and/or Mason) backfield, because there's almost no way the Vikings will relegate Jones to a traditional backup role. At the same time, we should recognize that Mason out-snapped and comfortably out-touched Jones in Week 1, when the latter was healthy. Mason is the better rest-of-season bet, even if Jones makes it through the rest of the year unscathed.
Then there's Trey Benson, who ran great last season while backing up James Conner, and who appeared to be a weekly must-start RB when Conner was knocked out for the year. Benson should return by early-to-mid November -- in other words, possibly for one of the Cards' two upcoming games. But he's also a bit of a wild card on a fading 2-5 club that easily (based on matchups) could be 3-9 when December rolls around.
Backups Bam Knight (3.5 yards per carry) and Michael Carter (2.8) are getting more attention for their fantasy production than their inefficiency. I think Benson can/should return as the starter. And yet, since he's not an established bell cow, it's not as if Knight and Carter are keeping the seat warm for him. Some RBs have a history of success. Benson has a very brief history of waiting for his turn in a post-Conner backfield. One great performance from Knight or Carter could alter the backfield's balance.
Some injured-RB scenarios are pretty clear: Omarion Hampton *should* easily regain his job, because the rookie has looked like a difference maker. (Yes, Kimani Vidal beat up on Miami, though that's true for every backfield this year.) Rachaad White hasn't done enough to retake his old job from Bucky Irving.
As always in fantasy, the running back position is the hardest to figure out. We can throw up our hands, or we can try to figure out the "why" in scenario and then piece together the most likely outcome.
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