Three teams tied for the worst winning percentage in 2024: the Giants, Titans, and Browns. Giants rookie RB Tyrone Tracy started every game. Tennessee starting RB Tony Pollard nearly tripled the touches of his #2, Tyjae Spears. But during most leagues' fantasy playoffs (weeks 15-17), Spears outscored Pollard 62.1 to 14.5 (Pollard didn't even play in the all-important Week 17.
Cleveland, meanwhile, was led primarily by Jerome Ford early in the season until Nick Chubb was ready to make his season debut in Week 7. Chubb then started every game until he got hurt in Week 15 and missed the rest of the season.
A year earlier, Carolina had the worst record. Chuba Hubbard took the starting job from Miles Sanders in Week 6. Hubbard averaged 13.0 fantasy points from Week 6 thru Week 13. He didn't exceed 12.3 in his final five outings beginning in Week 14.
Chicago had the league's worst record the year before that (2022). David Montgomery was the bell cow. But his snap count plummeted in weeks 16 and 17, resulting in 10.4 points and 5.6 points, respectively.
One final example: the year before that (2021), the Jaguars had the worst record. James Robinson started 13 of the first 15 games -- or technically 14 of the first 15 when Robinson returned from a one-game absence and almost immediately re-assumed the lead role. But in that final contest (Week 16), he handled only three touches before sitting in weeks 17 and 18.
I've vaguely discussed this phenomenon over the years, warning managers not to count on bad tams' starting RBs in the fantasy playoffs. The examples above add specifics to the theory. The worst teams seem to prefer rolling with backups down the stretch rather than continue to lean on bell cows.
The one notable recent exception is 2024's Tyrone Tracy. But this exception makes sense. Tracy was a rookie. My guess is that the team wanted to see if he could handle a full load ahead of 2025. This, in turn, would help inform their free-agent-signing and drafting decisions. He looked fantastic in his first seven starts (weeks 5-11), averaging 5.4 yards per carry. But in his final five starts, he netted only 3.3 YPC.
Based on historical data, Tracy was never going to be a mainstay fantasy RB. He turned 25 that year -- extraordinarily old by rookie standards -- and had amassed only 259 college touches. My belief is that his late-season drop-off reinforced to management that he needed backfield competition (i.e. Cam Skattebo). Now there's no question that the injured Tracy will be no better than the #2 when he returns.
So yes, Tracy was the exception because he was a rookie, and the team got the info they needed. In all other recent examples, the worst teams' starting running backs missed games or underwhelmed when fantasy managers needed them most.
This is why one of my favorite preseason RB bargains, Breece Hall (who clearly has underperformed) is a major risk of sitting out some or all of the fantasy playoffs for the currently winless Jets. The same conclusion can be drawn for Alvin Kamara on the 0-4 Saints, which is why (as discussed on today's podcast) Kendre Miller is a must-roster RB. The same goes for Pollard on the 0-4 Titans. And even some 1-3 teams (such as the potentially fading Ravens and Dolphins) need to right the ship soon to increase the probability that their starting RBs (e.g., Derrick Henry and De'Von Achane) are still starting bell cows in their final games.
It's not time to panic. Instead, it's time to make calculated decisions based on your level of risk aversion, as well as how confident you are that your RB's struggling team will turn things around.
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