Last year I shared research on dual-threat QBs, showing that the most prolific ones often have started declining statistically around ages 31-32. Entering this season, Steve McNair was #10 in career QB rushing yards. He was a top-10 QB in six of seven seasons from ages 24 to 30. He never cracked the top 10 again and was finished by age 34.
Cam Newton -- the player who first got me thinking about this -- was #3 on the all-time QB carries list entering 2025. He was a top-4 fantasy producer in five of his first seven campaigns. Was the QB8 in points per game at age 29, and then was washed up (and/or injured) by age 30.
Michael Vick's final great season (QB6 in points per game) was at age 31. Russell Wilson's final great season (QB6) was at age 32. And so on.
This summer I did a podcast episode on Lamar Jackson (28 years old) and Josh Allen (29). How much longer can the remain elite, or even simply "great"? History shows it'll probably be 2-3 seasons. Not much to worry about now if you're a dynasty manager. But something to think about next year.
I want to zoom in on Allen, because in many ways, what's he's doing this year defies logic. Sure, he's the QB3. What's so surprising about that? A lot, apparently. Last year marked the first time he didn't have a top-10 "alpha" WR since 2019. Buffalo's top wideout was Khalil Shakir (WR37 in points per game). This season he's leading the team as the WR36. Only one other wideout (Keon Coleman, WR53) is inside the top 75. And while Dalton Kincaid is doing well as the TE8, only two top-20 tight ends have fewer targets.
Speaking of targets, Buffalo's RBs have the second-fewest in the league. Allen is collecting only 0.5 fantasy points per game on passes to his dominant bell cow, James Cook, compared to 1.3 fantasy points per game in 2024. And the Allen-led Bills are averaging only 29 throws per contest -- the fifth-fewest in the league. Two years ago it was 34.1. The year before that, 36.4.
So he's throwing less and isn't garnering major fantasy production from any one player. Taken collectively, he shouldn't be elite. But of course, he's still running. That's making all the difference. From 2019 thru 2024, about 31% of his fantasy points came on the ground. This year it's 36%. He's averaging his third-most rushing attempts per game since 2019 and his third-most yards per carry since 2019.
Essentially, he's working harder than normal to manufacture offense, resulting in fantasy production (22.4 points per game) on par with last year (22.3).
It's all great news for redraft managers who need him to remain the focal point -- or at least, the co-focal point alongside Cook. It's also a bit concerning for a QB who hasn't missed a game since his 2018 rookie campaign. This is the point in Allen's career when he probably should be ramping down a bit. McNair's carries started declining at age 30. Same with Vick. For Newton, it was 29.
There should be at least some concern about how long Allen can keep this going.
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