Last night's matchup was almost guaranteed to result in buckets of points, translating into buckets of *fantasy* points, translating into (for some of you) incredible comebacks or devastating defeats. I actually entered this game with only 39 points from six players. My three remaining were Lamar Jackson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and David Montgomery, who combined for 85.3 points. And just like that, an awful week becomes respectable.
Besides Jackson's fantasy heroics, Baltimore finally got major production from two receivers who had been mostly silent the first two weeks. Rashod Bateman opened the season with stat lines of 2-15 and 2-10. Interestingly (and not coincidentally), Zay Flowers had 7-75 and 7-143-1 in those same two matchups. But yesterday we witnessed the reverse: Bateman hit 5-63-1, while Flowers was stuck with 2-13 on only three targets.
As I talk about on today's podcast, there's a tendency to chase points on the waiver wire -- or at least, to strongly consider chasing points. I suggest not overreaching for Bateman, and for that matter, not reaching at all if you're good with your WRs. There's a cause-and-effect in any offense, and when it comes to receivers, causes and effects are heightened based on (a) the QB's pass-heaviness, and (b) game script.
Yesterday Derrick Henry had only 13 touches, while Jackson threw it only 27 times, despite playing a significant portion of the game from behind. Bateman had only seven targets. Andrews had only six, but made the most of them with a 6-91-2 line. That's not easily replicable from week to week. Not even close in this offense, especially in more favorable matchups.
For example, beginning in Week 10 the Ravens will face (in order) the Vikings, Browns, Jets, Bengals, Steelers, Bengals, Patriots, and (in most managers' championship week) Packers. Some of those contests should yield very positive game scripts starting early in the second half. Others feature tough defenses that might keep Baltimore's aerial attack in check. Jackson typically averages 27 or fewer passes per game. It will be tough to trust more than one receiver in many of those.
As for the Lions, Jared Goff goes from fantasy hero to unstartable, despite his team collecting 38 points. There's a bit of randomness to it, obviously. When you engineer an 11-minute, 98-yard drive that results in a one-yard Montgomery plunge into the end zone, your quarterback essentially just burned a quarter with little (fantasy-wise) to show for it. One challenge is that since coming to Detroit in 2021, Goff has only two rushing scores. Near the goal line, his backfield can do all the work.
One big difference between these two teams is that Detroit has a weekly alpha in Amon-Ra St. Brown. There's no hesitation when starting him, because he's going to lead his team in targets, catches, and receiving yards many/most weeks. That's not the case for anyone in Baltimore, where even Flowers cannot (yet) be trusted as a set-him-and-forget-him WR.
Finally, this marked Gibbs' fifth career outing with more than 20 carries. He topped out at 151 rushing attempts in college and is on pace for 244 this year (plus the playoffs, if they make it). Last year he had 264 including the postseason. While youth is on his side, it's notable that Montgomery's carries have been on the decline -- from 15.2 (2023) to 12.8 (2024) to 11.3 thru the first three games. While not often used as a true bell cow in college, Gibbs increasingly has assumed that role, and there's no reason to believe (barring an injury) that this trend will reverse.
So although it pains me to acknowledge it (because he's on my team), Montgomery is a sizable sell-high RB. He's not getting enough through the air to maintain a must-start floor, and he cannot be counted on to rush for 12.6 yards per carry again (or even half that). Last year he didn't always need to score to be relevant. This year it's practically a necessity.
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