Two franchises that have been going in opposite directions for at least a year, and arguably 2 1/2. Miami was 8-3 at one point in 2022, then hit a losing streak, then Tua Tagovailoa was knocked out for the season, and then Buffalo beat them 34-31 in the opening round of the playoffs. As an indication of just how good the Dolphins were, they nearly one despite being forced to start rookie Skylar Thompson at quarterback. Objectively, Thompson was completely outmatched, completing only 18 of 45 throws en route to a 44.7 passer rating.
That franchise was built to reach the Super Bowl. They might have been only one starting QB away from getting there.
Then they went 11-4 the following year before dropping their final two contests -- the last one against the Bills. Miami never had a chance in their opening playoff game versus the defending-champion (and soon-to-be repeat champion) Chiefs.
On today's podcast, I walk through how a few Tua stats capture what worked in 2022 and much of 2023, and (quite possibly) why that same approach no longer works. Even with one of the league's worst defenses, this team can't generate enough offense through the air to keep pace. There was a time when they could. It's hard to imagine them figuring it out.
If there's any good news, it's that they'll face the similarly challenged Jets and Panthers in weeks 4 and 5. They have a legitimate shot at moving to 2-3 and giving fantasy managers some hope that Tyreek and Waddle can meet -- or at least come close to meeting -- preseason expectations. If you're rostering one or both, you probably have two options: bail now in exchange for significantly less than what you invested, or roll the dice on a couple of W's, a steadying ship, and a more cohesive offense.
For Buffalo, the biggest question is how Josh Allen can feed all of his playmakers. A nice problem to have, although managers might wish Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir produced with more predictability. Last night was Shakir's turn. Coleman is particularly tough to figure out. He was one of the biggest waiver adds after breaking through in Week 1. Josh Allen still hasn't anointed his new #1 WR.
Dalton Kincaid was one of my preseason TE bargains, though it wasn't as big as some other TEs. The biggest difference between this season and his 2023 and 2024 campaigns is touchdowns; he's already matched his total from each of those first two years. Hard to bet on that going forward, so at minimum he's earning enough looks to be a weekly starter. At most he'll flirt with the top 4 by season's end, depending on continued scoring opportunities.
And James Cook . . . wow. He's the overall RB1, with only low-ceiling journeyman Ty Johnson (barely) cutting into his touches. My podcast episode yesterday is a warning to dynasty managers. But for now, he's crushing it.
Speaking of crushing it, several of you came within four points of hitting the final score. Jimmy Overholt finished two points off (31-23 Bills). But Greg Slack takes the crown with a 31-20 prediction, and he'll look to defend his title next Thursday -- if he remembers to check this page.
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