On December 2nd, 2018, the Dolphins hosted rookie Josh Allen and the Bills. Buffalo was essentially out of postseason contention, and Miami's prospects looked only marginally better. Miami's offense was led by (1) Ryan Tannehill, who would leave for Tennessee a few months later, (2) Frank Gore, who would leave for Buffalo a few months later, (3) Kenyan Drake, who'd head to Arizona less than a year later, (4) DeVante Parker, who was a year away from what would become the only fantasy-relevant campaign of his career, and (5) Kenny Stills, who (that's right) left for Houston a few months later.
This hodge-podge unit went on to defeat the Bills, sending Allen to a 3-4 record as a starter. Not bad, unless you consider his statistical output: 153 passing yards per game on a 54% completion percentage with five passing TDs and seven interceptions. But he'd already established himself as a dual-threat quarterback, and on this day he rushed for a career-high 135 yards. Seven years later, it remains his career-high.
Since then, Buffalo has gone 13-1 against Miami. Their only defeat was in 2022 versus Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle, back when Miami was built to be a Super Bowl contender, parlaying this early-season victory over the Bills to move to 3-0 -- and eventually 8-3 -- before collapsing down the stretch.
Tua, Tyreek, and Waddle will be back out there tonight, but with a very different vibe surrounding this franchise. Tua hasn't looked close to the Tua of 2022, 2023, or even 2024. Tyreek is under investigation. Waddle -- a former #6 overall draft pick -- took a step back last season and has been little more than "solid" across these first two games. Swapping out Jonnu Smith for Darren Waller at tight end has been a disaster. Only De'Von Achane is producing at a high level.
Of course, anything could happen. Facing the prospect of an 0-3 start, Miami might put it all together and pull off the upset. The more likely scenario is a few splash plays mixed in with a lot of disappointment. Head coach Mike McDaniel is on the hot seat. A bad loss could hasten his departure. Or management might give him a reprieve with the Jets and Panthers coming up next.
Starting any Miami player requires a leap of faith, although Achane can do enough through the air to remain useful even in a negative game script. Still, this team could go one of two ways: implode or ignite. Starting any Dolphins depends on your risk tolerance.
For the Bills, 30+ points seems reasonable. Everyone from Allen to James Cook to Keon Coleman. Khalil Shakir and Josh Palmer are decent streamers. Dalton Kincaid remains undervalued; he has long-term top-5 TE potential, which is why the Bills drafted him in the first round in 2023. It's a pretty straightforward fantasy calculus: Buffalo has the tools to post huge numbers nearly every week, and they're set up nicely tonight.
Final score prediction: Bills win 34-9. Hoping to win for the second straight week. Gimme your best.
---