Each season, there are one or two (sometimes three) defenses against which managers don't want to start streamers. Occasionally a defense comes long that's so good, we need to think twice before rolling with a relatively safe starter. In 2024 the Chiefs yielded a league-lowest 13.6 fantasy points to opposing RBs. The year before that, QBs averaged only 12.2 points vs. the Jets and 12.3 vs. the Ravens. Defenses like those can make sit/start decisions that much harder.
The last-minute addition of Micah Parsons has helped transform the already formidable Packers D into perhaps the league's best. Last night's final score doesn't fully capture it. Jayden Daniels had only 17 rushing yards -- the second-fewest of his young career. Both his running backs topped out at 17, too. This came one week after Green Bay silenced Detroit's Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, who combined for only 44 yards on 20 carries.
Speaking of last week, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams averaged a combined 141.5 receiving yards per game in 2024. They mustered only 68 against the Packers. Similarly, last night Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel were mostly held in check, combining for only 92 yards (yes, and a Deebo score) on 17 targets.
Detroit was last year's highest-scoring offense. Washington was #5. While no one knows for sure if they're still elite / near-elite in 2025, we'll have a much better idea in the next 2-3 weeks. For now, it would seem risky at best to automatically trust any Browns RB, WR, or even TE against the Packers next weekend. Maybe Cedric Tillman will break through. Maybe David Njoku will step up. But it'll probably be easier to guess wrong than to guess right.
One more thing about Washington: Austin Ekeler's injury could propel Jacory Croskey-Merritt into bell cow territory, or at least the 1A role. I have remained firmly in the "skeptical" camp regarding the rookie seventh-rounder's fantasy outlook. That said, if Ekeler goes on the shelf, Croskey-Merritt will be handed a golden opportunity. The question, then, is whether he's able to seize it.
For the Packers, it was another day, another WR injury. With Christian Watson still on the shelf, Jayden Reed could miss time after hurting his shoulder in the opening quarter. The thinning didn't rookie Matthew Golden, who put up a zero to keep his season receiving line at 2-16-0. Dontayvion led his WR teammates with six targets, which might lead some managers to add him next week. And if Reed misses time, it'll make sense with only Romeo Doubs (and a slowly acclimating Golden) standing in his way.
Not sure what to make of Tucker Kraft, beyond the obvious. He had the eighth-most TE red-zone targets last season but was tied for 23rd inside the 10-yard line. Perhaps Jordan Love trusts his #1 TE mor than ever. After all, Kraft is the only Green Bay playmaker not to miss a game since he entered the league two years ago.
On yesterday's podcast, I discussed Sunday-to-Thursday RB regressions and why, despite Josh Jacobs' 20 touches on Sunday, similarly aged/used running backs historically haven't shown much decline four days later. Based on my spreadsheet, I labeled him "a good bet for 12+ fantasy points." He finished with 14.4.
Next Thursday will feature (barring injuries) James Cook and De'Von Achane. Jacobs has shown over the years that he can handle frequently heavy workloads. Cook and Achane haven't (yet?) established that track record. So it'll be interesting to see how each is utilized this Sunday.
Finally, for the closest-score competition, my 26-19 Packers prediction apparently won. I know, that's not how these contests are supposed to go. I usually predict unusual scores because it's more fun to celebrate you winning. But now that I've tasted victory, I kind of like it.
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