Like many contests, tonight's TNF matchup combines some highly predictable player outcomes with a lot of unpredictability.
Here's what we might/should expect: Jordan Love and Jayden Daniels have nice floors. As usual, Love has 5-6 capable pass-catchers at his disposal. The biggest question is whether he or Josh Jacobs get the scoring opportunities. Wouldn't be shocking if Jacobs crosses the goal line two or three times. Wouldn't be surprising if instead Love gets 2-3 TDs.
Speaking of Jacobs, based on data going back to 2013, he's actually *not* a sizable regression risk after netting 20 touches on Sunday. For more on him and that whole Sunday-Thursday regression spreadsheet I sometimes refer to, check out today's podcast.
Meanwhile, Daniels is Daniels. I warned this summer that the market seemed convinced that his dominant rookie campaign was his floor, or at least his midpoint. But there are a lot of great fantasy quarterbacks, and investing QB3 draft capital on a guy with one season under his belt seemed too steep. He was actually my QB8. We'll see how he fares against a tough Green Bay D.
Washington's backfield remains a fun mess, in that Austin Ekeler and Jacoby Croskey-Merritt already look poised to outperform ADP expectations. Is Croskey-Merritt for real? If so, he'll be one of my biggest misses. But the Lions just managed only 44 rushing yards on 20 carries from Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. I would imagine this matchup favors Ekeler.
At wideout, Matthew Golden is a nice buy low if you can get him below top-45 value, which might be next to impossible, though his ADP was WR41. If he falters tonight, you might be able to swoop in. Not much to lose given his solid floor. The downside, as always, is consistency in a relatively packed corps. At minimum we should see five Packer receivers (including Tucker Kraft) with multiple targets. It's easier to bet on Golden and Jayden Reed than it is on Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks. But would we be surprised if the latter two led the way? That's the problem, at least for now.
And for Washington, I didn't anticipate Deebo Samuel's Week 1 outburst. Notably, it came at the expense of Terry McLaurin, who should benefit from squeaky-wheel syndrome.
Final score prediction: Green Bay wins 26-19. Looking forward to seeing at least one of you win so that tomorrow I don't have to awkwardly congratulate myself.
---