For every game, there are the stats, the action beyond the stats, and how both influence rest-of-season projections.
Last night's stats were brutal for most managers. Three of the elites -- Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and CeeDee Lamb -- got their points. Javonte Williams was the biggest pleasant surprise. And TEs Dallas Goedert and Jake Ferguson gave some of us just enough production to sleep a bit easier.
Everyone else? No need to walk through it. You all know what happened. This is when Thursday nights can make or break a fantasy week.
The action beyond the stats almost always tells a different story. Despite the close contest, Hurts attempted only 23 throws. Philly finished last in passes in 2024. At home against a questionable Dallas D, he underwhelmed through the air. Again, managers deserve to be thrilled with his two touchdowns. But that won't always happen.
And while Barkley's production was impressive, he collected a too-high (in my opinion) 22 touches and slowed considerably in the second half, finishing with 3.3 yards per carry. If he continued that touch pace through another Super Bowl, it would give him over 900 touches across two straight seasons. I don't believe that's ever been done . . . for good reasons.
And did Brown's hamstring troubles turn him into a decoy? Or did the Cowboys effectively contain him? That was probably the night's biggest shocker, and at the same time, it was too shocking to panic, because it was not merely a 1-8 receiving line. It was a 1-8 receiving line on one target. Whether or not Hurts looked his way before the final couple minutes, as long as Brown's healthy in 10 days, it shouldn't matter.
For Dallas, CeeDee committed some bad drops, though that has more to do with Week 1 than anything else. CeeDee is CeeDee. More interesting to me is a backfield that is no less murky. Javonte Williams' successful goal-line punch-ins are not easily replicable in my view. He ran adequately, and Dallas needs more than "adequate." Miles Sanders showed more burst on his big run, which might have reset the depth chart ahead of Week 2 if he hadn't fumbled in the red zone. Although many people will say that Williams solidified his #1 standing, I think at best he broke even, while Sanders might not get another chance.
And despite the anemic numbers, Dak played pretty well. He was my favorite non-top-14 QB to start the summer. His ADP rose to QB11. He remained at QB5 on my board. Some might say he has no shot. I believe he played well enough on the road versus the defending champions to warrant bullishness.
Stats + context = rest-of-season projections, and the ROS for many of these guys hasn't changed. As just mentioned, Dak should be more than fine. Same with CeeDee. We can't discount George Pickens in his Dallas debut; there will be much better days. And if Jaydon Blue is active next week, he might be one solid outing away from sanding Sanders to the showers and Williams to (at best) a 50-50 role. The backfield is as unpredictable now as it was two days ago. That should worry or interest managers, depending on which of their RB(s) you drafted.
Finally, the Eagles' ROS is stable for now, but with a two notable yellow flags. There's little room for error in the passing game. An uptick in usage from Goedert and Jahan Dotson versus last season would be awful for Brown or Devonta Smith most weeks. Hurts and his two "must-start" wideouts and their offensive coordinator probably will need to make adjustments in Week 2. The impact of those adjustments will tell us whether we should be moderately worried.
And again, Barkley, especially in the context of Will Shipley's rib injury. AJ Dillon arguably is a must-add RB in most leagues, at least until we know Shipley's Week 2 outlook. Because my preseason views on Barkley haven't changed. Injuries and/or massive declines in efficiency are par for the course the season after a 27+ year-old amasses 400+ touches. Barkley hit 482. The Eagles showed no signs of managing his reps, and he showed few signs of bust-out potential beyond his touchdown. Managers are, once again, warned.
Regarding the closest-score competition, three of you predicted 27-20 Eagles. So unless I missed something (it's very late, and I have to wake up very early), congratulations to David Simms, Kyle Nelson, and Raymond Clymire. Much-deserved versus fierce competition.
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