We've made it to the first Sunday. Aside from Christian McCaffrey's questionable tag (as of late last night), the players who were deemed healthy last week are still healthy. So last-minute fantasy lineup changes shouldn't be necessary -- again, unless the CMC news gets worse. For now, I'd assume he'll be out there without dramatic limitations.
For the past few years, I've shared FF4W research on Sunday-to-Thursday RB usage. My spreadsheet compares every RB's Thursday workload and fantasy production with their workload/production four days earlier. The only requirement is 10+ Sunday touches; this ensures little-used RBs don't skew the results.
For a while, Thursday regressions were fairly common. Recently head coaches seem to have caught on, sometimes limiting their starter's reps on Sunday so they can more easily handle a full load Thursday. For example, since 2020, among the Week 1 RBs with 10+ Sunday touches, only 33% had fewer touches that Thursday. More often, they're "turned loose" on Thursday. Not a huge fantasy issue, but definitely one worth noting.
This coming Thursday's matchup will be Green Bay vs. Washington. Who knows how the Commanders' backfield distribution will shake out. But in five career Sunday-Thursday splits, Josh Jacobs has averaged 2.4 fewer touches on those Sundays. Again, not a big deal, and it's also relevant enough to acknowledge.
Finally, on Wednesday's FF4W podcast, I walked through the development of a DFS lineup for today's 1pm/4pm Eastern contests. It includes Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr. -- two of my favorite undervalued, weekly-startable WRs. If you don't like podcasts, here's my DraftKings recommendation for today's 4pm Eastern slate: Sam Darnold ($5,300), Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,700), David Montgomery ($5,700), Nico Collins ($7,400), Matthew Golden ($4,900), JSN ($5,800), Dalton Schultz ($3,500), Cooper Kupp ($5,300), Broncos ($3,800).
Good luck today.
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