Major League Baseball's 1998 Seattle Mariners' offense was led by 28-year-old Ken Griffey Jr. and 22-year-old Alex Rodriguez. They combined for 98 homers, 270 RBIs, and 66 stolen bases while playing in every game. The team finished 76-85. The following season, Griffey missed two contests and Rodriguez missed 33. Yet they still combined for 90 homers, 245 RBIs, and 45 stolen bases. The team finished 79-83.
I remember when Griffey left for Cincinnati after that season. Surely it would be a net negative for Seattle to lose one of the greatest hitters of his generation in his prime. But they posted a 91-71 record that next year, winning only their second playoff series in franchise history. And that *next* offseason, Rodriguez fled to the Rangers. He had led the league in WAR ("wins above replacement") two of the previous three years. He was essentially irreplaceable. Surely Seattle made a huge mistake.
But without their two best hitters that next season, the Mariners won an MLB-record 116 games.
Now, it's a little more complicated than that. Their pitching went from bad to brilliant, lowering their team ERA by an incredible 0.99 (essentially a full run per game). And on offense they added Bret Boone, who led the league with 141 RBIs that season, and a 27-year-old rookie name Ichiro Suzuki -- arguably the greatest pure hitter of his generation -- who led the league with a .350 batting average and 56 steals. Mike Cameron and Jon Olerud joined the previous season, transforming what had been a top-heavy offense into one with no glaring weaknesses.
But that's the point. Sometimes an array of really good players yields better results than a small handful of superstars. And the money saved *not* paying top dollar for top talent sometimes can be put to better use.
The Dolphins' 2022 trade for Tyreek Hill was a statement. It was a declaration that this franchise -- which hadn't won a playoff game in 2022 years -- was actively pursuing its first Super Bowl title in nearly half a century. On both sides of the ball, they had high-priced stars with championship pedigrees. Surely it would be a net positive.
They are now 29-26 since that trade with zero postseason wins. And during the same span, the Chiefs -- which some people thought made a huge mistake unloading Hill in his prime -- have appeared in three consecutive Super Bowls, winning two. Like the Mariners a little more than two decades ago, Kansas City retooled in the absence of their #1 offensive playmaker, and it worked.
Hill's injury is expected to be a season-ender. He's signed for one more year and will be 32 years old when we next see him on the field, assuming he makes it back (the severity of the injury wasn't known as of last night). His days as a must-start fantasy WR probably are over. His time in Miami might be over if this franchise opts to cut him loose in exchange for a sizable-yet-probably-necessary dead cap hit.
As shared earlier this year, the Dolphins' cap situation remains awful. They'll need to shed about $15 million of salary ahead of next year to stay under the cap. They've already dumped talent to make it work this season. They'll probably need to take more dramatic measures to be ready for next year.
None of this is really Hill's fault. He played exceedingly well for much of his tenure. But this has been, by and large, a top-heavy offense: great news for fantasy managers needing predictable outcomes, and bad news for a team that lacked depth.
Aside from 2024 sixth-rounder Malik Washington and the suddenly relevant (again) Darren Waller, there are no winners. Jaylen Waddle hasn't really shown that he can be a consistent alpha when needed. Tua Tagovailoa loses one of the league's best after-the-catch receivers, lowering his ceiling across every conceivable passing stat. And who knows what this team will look at the trade deadline.
Hill's time in Miami is a reminder of what happens when teams go all in. Statistically, he did everything the team hoped he'd do. But it also came at the expense of building a deep reservoir of talent. Two of the many draft picks they gave up for Hill were 2022's #29 and #50. Wan'Dale Robinson went off the board at #43. George Pickens was taken at #52. In another universe, Miami entered 2022 with one of the league's best young WR trios. And that doesn't even take into account the roughly $30 million per year locked up in one player -- money that might have been used to fill more roster holes.
Hill's injury is a mini fantasy earthquake. His rest-of-season value already was in doubt. We'll see if his loss has a materially (actionable) positive impact on anyone else.
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