Have received a lot of questions the past two days about waiver targets -- specifically, how much to invest in surprising Week 1 breakouts. Not all positions are equal. A surprisingly good RB might signal the solidifying depth chart. Travis Etienne is a prime example. His dominance was both unexpected and unsurprising, if that makes sense. Fantasy managers know how good he can be. The question was whether he could/would return to 2022-2023 levels.
We can then draw a straight line, connecting his performance with the Jags trading Tank Bigsby to Philadelphia. A week ago, their ADPs were RB30 and RB44, respectively. With only rookie Bhayshul Tuten standing in the way, Etienne now has a clearer path to weekly must-start production. Even if the 26-year-old falls back into the top 20-24 range, he'll still be viewed as a preseason bargain.
Most wide receivers are different. Most teams' #1's remain the #1 throughout the year. Most #2's remain the #2. The same goes for most #3's. Sure, there are exceptions, like when a rookie #3 gradually (or quickly) pushes past a ceiling-capped #2, or when a post-prime #1 regresses. But these instances are often predictable, or at least not shocking.
When a Week 1 breakout is a starting RB -- even a 1A RB -- we understand why. When he's a #1 WR, #2 WR, or #1 TE, it also makes sense, When it's a handcuff or 1B RB, we need to look at the context; if he's still #2 on the depth chart, we shouldn't get too excited about their realistic ceiling.
But #3 WRs who bust out in Week 1 are uniquely risky. Unless they have a clear path to the #1 or #2 job, you're betting on the quarterback feeding 3+ receivers many/most weeks. The 2013 Broncos aside (three WRs in the top 17 in points per game), teams generally don't field three weekly-fantasy-starting wideouts.
The top 10 fantasy WRs in Week 1 included Quentin Johnston, Emeka Egbuka, Deebo Samuel, Hollywood Brown, and Keenan Allen. If we extend it to the top 20, there's Calvin Austin III, Kayshon Boutte, Cedric Tillman, and Rome Odunze. Brown is Kansas City's de facto #1 until Xavier Worthy's potentially imminent return. Everyone else is their team's #2 or #3. Most of them will be capped around the top 20-24, which means most have nowhere to go but down. Of course, that doesn't mean they're unstartable. But it does mean it'll be difficult to sustain top-20 numbers.
Last season's Week 1 top-10 wideouts included Allen Lazard, Jameson Williams, Chris Godwin, and Alec Pierce. Williams was an ascending #2, while Godwin actually overtook Mike Evans in points per game until the former was knocked out for the year. Lazard ended up being the WR47 in points per game. Remove his Week 1 breakout, and he was merely the WR59. And Pierce followed up his dominant opening weekend with WR57 rest-of-season per-game production.
Egbuka and Brown are in different situations. As discussed this summer, Egbuka could just as easily be Tampa Bay's third-highest-scoring WR has he could be their highest-scoring WR. Chris Godwin's health and Evans' continued high-level play will be major factors. And no one's adding Brown expecting a top-10 WR this year. He's purely a rental in an offense that (for now) desperately needs receivers.
But if you're trying to add Quentin Johnston or Keenan Allen on waivers, appreciate the fact that finishing in the top 20 will be tough as long as Ladd McConkey is healthy, and that means top-25 production the rest of the season will be tough. And since both those guys are popular waiver adds, there's a good chance that half of those investors won't even have a weekly starter going forward, because someone has to be the Chargers' #3 WR.
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One more thought regarding Etienne. While the fantasy focus is deservedly on him, I think people should be talking more about Bigsby, whose value ironically jumped. In Jacksonville, he and Tuten might have competed for 1B or even handcuff duties. But on the Eagles, in light of Will Shipley's injury and AJ Dillon's neck injury history, Bigsby might have handcuff duties all to himself.
That matters for what I hope are obvious reasons. Saquon Barkley entered this season as one of the two riskiest top-14 fantasy RBs (CMC was the other). The odds of him missing a couple games are incredibly high. The odds of him missing 4+ games are about 50/50. Of the 26 times an RB has amassed 450+ touches in a season, the average number of missed games that next season was 3.5. Similarly, of the 32 times an RB has cleared 400 carries in a season, the average number of missed games the following season was 3.8. For those who matched or exceeded Barkley's 436 carries, they sat an average of 4.6 games.
So yeah, Bigsby matters more than I think most managers realize. There's a strong possibility that he'll start multiple games in a plus offense. Not bad for a guy who a lot of people will be dropping this morning.
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