Are you drafting Ja'Marr Chase based on what he did last year? Nothing wrong with that. In 2024 he averaged more fantasy points per game when Tee Higgins was healthy then when Higgins was sidelined. He is essentially defense-proof. Or so we would expect. He led all fantasy wideouts with 403.0 points, and it wasn't even close; Justin Jefferson was #2 with only 317.5 points.
But last summer's Ja'Marr Chase wasn't Ja'Marr Chase. It was CeeDee Lamb, who was coming off a 403.2-point effort. While Chase was merely "great" with 16.4 points per game, Lamb hit 23.7. Tyreek Hill was #2 that year, and #3 (Amon-Ra St. Brown) was only marginally better than last year's #2. In other words, CeeDee was a clear-and-away the best fantasy WR, with only Tyreek coming close.
The disparity between #1 and #2 / everyone else was even more dramatic two years before that, when Cooper Kupp amassed an historic 439.5 points. The year before that Davante Adams was #1 with 25.6 points per game in 14 contests; Tyreek was #2 with "only" 21.9. We could go back another year -- to 2019 -- and find Michael Thomas dominating with 374.6 points, which happened to be 98.5 points more than the #2 WR (Chris Godwin).
Now let's slowly move back to the present, starting with the summer of 2020. What was Thomas's ADP after his top-ranked performance? WR1. The following summer, what was Adams' -- the #1 WR the year before -- ADP? Yes, WR1. The summer after that, what was reigning #1 Kupp's ADP? WR1, of course. And CeeDee last summer? WR1. And Chase . . . well, we already know.
Chase is #1 on my draft board *not* because I think he'll crack 400 points again. He's #1 because I believe there is no safer high-ceiling player. A great case could be made for Bijan Robinson. Some of you swear by Saquon Barkley. Others might make the bold move of drafting Lamar Jackson, because a repeat performance certainly would make him a worthy overall #1.
If I get the #1 pick and take Chase, it'll be because -- barring an unanticipated injury to him and/or to Joe Burrow -- 300+ points is a great bet. He had 304.6 as a 2021 rookie and then was on pace for 343.4 in only 12 contests in 2022. And despite Burrow missing seven games in 2023, Chase was on a 279.1-point clip in 16 games.
So yeah, 300+ seems safe. 340+ seems very doable. 400+? Probably not, and I'm okay with that.
I think it's important to set realistic expectations about monster performers entering the following season. Whatever they just did probably isn't their floor, and it might not even be their expected ceiling. There's an ebb and flow to fantasy production. We can go all in on an in-his-prime wideout, and simultaneously recognize that -- quite possibly -- we'll be talking about a different #1 wide receiver next summer.
My question for you all is, outside of Chase and the other elite WRs, who has the best chance to surprise us and finish #1?
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