One indicator of how "safe" a position is relates to how much turnover there is in the opening weeks. Entering Week 4, five starting QBs are either in the midst of multi-game absences (Brock Purdy, Justin Fields, and J.J. McCarthy), are out for most of the season (Joe Burrow), or are being replaced (Russell Wilson). Among these five, only Purdy's and Burrow's #1 QB status are assured, with Fields falling into the less assured "he'll-most-likely-keep-his-job" category. And Michael Penix might be one more bad start away from ceding his job back to Kirk Cousins, while Bryce Young (7-24 career win-loss record) isn't out of the woods.
Starting running backs have actually been slightly more durable this year, which worries me. RBs are typically more injury-prone. But for now, James Conner, Aaron Jones, Tyrone Tracy, and (technically) Austin Ekeler are the only Week 1 lead RBs to be sidelined. Rhamondre Stevenson out-snapped TreVeyon Henderson in their opener, and regardless, that depth chart remains confusing. And I'm not counting Jerome Ford or Dylan Sampson, because Quinshon Judkins was almost universally expected to carry the load once he returned to the fold.
Jones and Tracy are facing multi-game injuries, leaving only Conner and Ekeler out for the year. That said, neither Jones nor Tracy (especially Tracy) are assured their starting jobs once they return.
#1 wide receivers sometimes are tougher to quantify, and that's the case with Jauan Jennings and Mike Evans. It could be argued that Ricky Pearsall has been the Niners' #1, and although Evans has out-targeted Emeka Egbuka, he has the same number of catches as the rookie and fewer receiving yards. Among clear-cut Week 1 WRs atop the depth chart, the injured include CeeDee Lamb and Xavier Worthy (the de facto #1 to start the season).
But that doesn't tell the whole story. Anecdotally, it has seemed unusual that so many #1 wideouts have taken backseats to #2's and even #3's. This group includes Ladd McConkey, DJ Moore, Jerry Jeudy, Stefon Diggs, and Terry McLaurin (who might miss Week 4). Additionally, Dyami Brown is slightly outperforming Brian Thomas Jr. (though Thomas still has the biggest target share), and Elic Ayomanor seems to be on the verge of surpassing Calvin Ridley. And this doesn't even factor in Tre Tucker bettering (for now) Jakobi Meyers and Calvin Austin going toe-to-toe with DK Metcalf.
This is why WRs have been popular waiver adds this month, and probably will continue to be today. Trendy pickups Since post-Week-1 have included / will include Rashod Bateman (WR57 preseason ADP), Keenan Allen (WR58), Luther Burden III (WR59), Quentin Johnston (WR63), Hollywood Brown (WR65), Cedric Tillman (WR66), Wan'Dale Robinson (WR70), Tory Horton (WR79), Ayomanor (WR80), Austin (WR87), Troy Franklin (WR88), and Tucker (WR108).
As mentioned before, each year since 2012 I've tracked ADPs versus fantasy results. Last year, among all of the preseason WRs outside the top 50 ADP, only three finished the season as top-30 WRs. There were also three the year before, and three more the year before that. But only once since 2017 has a non-top-50-ADP wide receiver finished in the top 10. That was Hunter Renfrow in 2021. He needed to produce one of the best completion percentages in WR history (80.5%) to barely edge out Keenan Allen for the #10 spot.
This year it might be Allen's turn to shock the fantasy world. Or Johnston's. Or Tucker's. Or all three. They each occupy a spot in the top 10. But then we might fall back a bit on probabilities. These surprises are so unusual, and as alluded to earlier, surprising trends tend to level out or even shift into reverse over time. It's still a long season.
This is how I try to make sense of continually shifting player values. WR is the most chaotic position thru Week 3. Historically, it's less chaotic than RB. I expect the WR chaos to level out and be replaced by a rise in RB chaos.
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