For the fourth straight season, the Eagles' top three receivers will be AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. Brown already has a small yellow flag in drafts, thanks to a preseason hamstring injury that reportedly won't stop him from playing in Week 1, but which might make him a little bit riskier than usual. Smith was on pace last year to post career-high fantasy points had he stayed healthy. And Goedert's recent injury history is why his ADP is TE17 -- even though he was last year's TE10 in points per game.
This is a fascinating fantasy group, and there are huge implications to making the right (or wrong) decision on drafting each. I want to walk through a few numbers to help explain why.
In 2022, these three combined for a 65.3% target share. Nearly two-thirds of Philly's pass attempts went to one of them. Had Goedert played all 17 games, and had he absorbed all of his backup TE's targets, that share would have been closer to 70%. In 2023, their share dipped to 62.7%. This affected Smith's fantasy value the most. But had everyone played 17 games, their combined share would have been closer to 67%. And last year, their shared plummeted to 53.1% due to significant injuries. But again, had no one missed a game, they would have easily pushed for 68%-70%. The question is whether the quality (e.g., scoring potential) of many of those looks would have dipped.
That last part is notable because of Saquon Barkley's offensive presence. The all-world RB had one of the greatest rushing campaigns in history. Yet he averaged only 2.7 targets. His career mark entering last year was 5.4. So his receptions alone couldn't have really hampered the "Big Three's" upside.
The Eagles attempted a league-low 26.4 passes per game. Interestingly, there's no evidence of a relationship between Jalen Hurts' passing volume and whether his Big Three were healthy. When Brown missed Weeks 2-4, Hurts averaged 32.7 throws -- including 30 when Smith also missed Week 4.
So rather than view pass attempts as simply a number, we should view it as an outcome based largely on game flow: Philly lost two of their first four contests and barely won the other two. Hurts entered game #5 averaging 33.0 throws and then proceeded to net 22.5 in his final 10 complete games, in which they went undefeated while outscoring opponents 283 to 151.
From my perspective, there are two high-probability paths for the Big Three to meet or exceed ADP expectations, and both have to do with how competitive their games are -- and by extension, how much Hurts is throwing. The first path assumes their difficult schedule (especially relative to last year) leads to more contests that aren't decided until late. For example, Hurts attempted only 10.3 passes per second half last season, down from 14.4 in 2023. Closer games -- as well as more games where they're trailing -- should boost passing numbers.
The other high-probability path might annoy some of you, which is the nature of writing about fantasy football. Because I've written and podcasted a lot about Barkley's enormous injury/regression risk, matching my urgency about Christian McCaffrey in the summers of 2020 and 2024, as well as Derrick Henry in the summer of 2021. Barkley would have to defy history to come anywhere close to last year's production. While Barkley at 70% of his 2024 numbers would still be great, there would be a little more pressure on Hurts and the Big Three.
Whether because of a much tougher schedule or a high-risk running back (or both), I'm betting on Brown, Smith, and Goedert.
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