Four summers ago I shared new research on the relationship between high-snap-count RBs and their fantasy production the following season. I encouraged readers to track the 16 high-snap (600+ snaps, including the playoffs) running backs in 2021. Would their results bolster my research, or upend it?
In that 2021 season, 13 of the 16 high-snap RBs regressed statistically compared to 2020. The net decline among all 16 RBs was 17%. Of the six running backs who earned 700+ snaps in 2020, five declined by at least 26% the following year.
My findings get stronger each season, as the data remains fairly steady. Higher snap counts deepen the regressions. So does age. Put them together, and it's a blaring red flag.
Last summer I produced a seven-page report called "High RB Snap Counts." Those of you who purchased it saw a chart at the end showing the 20 running backs coming off 600+ snap campaigns, as well as their age, 2023 fantasy scoring ranking, 2024 ADP, and how risky they were heading into that season.
For example, Christian McCaffrey (1,006 snaps) had an RB1 ADP. I labeled him a "7" risk out of 10, meaning he was a pretty high-probability regression/injury candidate. Rachaad White was next on the list with 960 snaps; his 2023 usage and 2024 RB13 ADP placed him at an "8," making him a higher-probability regression/injury candidate. And so on.
I assigned risk levels based on 12 seasons of data encompassing primarily snap counts and age. It was that simple. I wanted to see if the data held.
And with only one big exception, it did. Two of my three high-risk ("7" and above) starting RBs regressed sharply. Five of my six loe-risk ("3" and below) RBs performed better than their preseason ADPs. The sixth (Austin Ekeler) finished just four spots below his preseason ADP. And the middle group -- "4" thru "6" -- were a mixed bag as expected: four finished slightly or moderately below their ADPs, four finished slightly or moderately above their ADPs, and one (Kyren Williams) matched his ADP.
So if you'd targeted multiple safe high-snap RBs in your draft, you would have locked in solid value. There were absolutely no busts in this group. They were as safe as the research predicted. And if you'd faded any of the riskiest high-snap RBs, you would've had a two-thirds chance of guessing right.
My 2025 report presents updated charts that incorporate last season's results, as well as the next batch of RBs coming off high-snap campaigns. Saquon Barkley tops the list with 1,020 snaps. Combined with nearly 500 touches, the 28-year-old has an "8" risk score. Nothing else needs to be said (except I said a lot more in a recent podcast episode).
If your purchased last year's report and want the updated version, donate whatever you want, and I'll send it over. And remember that I use this information when I draft. It's not just a report. It's an action plan.
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