In today's column I want to focus on research I probably haven't shared on this page, but which I've been collecting since 2015. For each position in each of the past 10 seasons, on one tab I've recorded the top five players based on preseason ADP and how they performed Week 1. On the other tab I've recorded the top five fantasy scorers *in* Week 1.
The point of this research is to better understand how much (or how little) Week 1 scoring reflects full-season scoring. There are about 40 ways to slice this data into actionable findings. Here are a few examples:
The top five preseason ADP QBs (50 in all since 2015) on average finished 12th in Week 1 QB scoring (specifically, their average was 12.3). For the full season, their positional ranking was 9.6. So last year Jalen Hurts (QB3 ADP) scored the 10th-most Week 1 QB points. He finished the year as the overall QB8. He recovered after a "disappointing" season opener -- and in fact, on a per-game basis, he nearly hit his ADP.
Regardless of how poorly your elite / near-elite QB performs Week 1, he's more likely than not to improve across the next 16 games. This is especially true for QBs whose Week 1 numbers are well below expectations. Among the 24 top-5 ADP quarterbacks who finished outside the top 10 in Week 1, 20 (83%) performed better across the full season. (The four who performed worse did so because of significant injuries.) Also notably, 15 (60%) finished in the top 10, while 11 (44%) finished in the top 5.
To me, that's the biggest takeaway from this data slice: If you drafted a preseason top-5 QB in the past 10 years, and if that QB scored outside the top 10 in Week 1, he had a 44% chance of climbing back into the top 5 by the end of the season. And what was the average Week 1 ranking of those 11 QBs? 21st. That should be at least moderately encouraging if your coveted quarterback tanks in the opener. A meaningful rebound into the top 10 is likely, and a sharp rebound into the top 5 is nearly a 50/50 possibility.
Now let's look at Week 1 numbers from a different angle. I've documented the top 5 Week 1 scorers at each position since 2015. Some of them also had ADPs in the top 5, while others had ADPs in the 20's -- and sometimes even worse. But all of them dominated in their season openers. For example, the five highest-scoring Week 1 QBs in each of the last 10 seasons averaged 28.0 points in the opener. That accounted for, on average 13% of their total season points. (For a player accruing the same point total in each game, each week would account for about 6% of their season points.)
That 13% figure shouldn't be surprising. Most players can't sustain weekly dominant performances. But it's also a reminder that Week 1 breakout QBs on average return to their expected outputs.
This fact is reinforced by the following: 29 of the 50 QBs (58%) finished better than their preseason ADP. That's not great given how strong a start they had. And while their average ADP was 13, their average full-season scoring ranking with 12th. Again, the massive Week 1 bump generally didn't carry over through the rest of the year.
Successful fantasy managing requires, in part, removing emotion from our decision making. When our elite or near-elite QB falls flat in Week 1, we shouldn't overreact. React? Yes. But react in a way that accounts for the strong possibility that they'll end up somewhere between "fine" and "great." And when a waiver QB crushes it in Week 1, we might react by adding him to see if it's a fluke or a sign of things to come. But we shouldn't *overreact* and think he has a great shot at outperforming his ADP.
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