Maybe one reason so many early-first-round QB draft picks struggle as rookies is because, after one or more years playing on good, great, or even dominant college teams, they're often paired with a sub-par NFL teams. 19 of the last 20 quarterbacks taken #1 overall inherited teams with a combined 56-251 record the year before. The other/20th quarterback (David Carr) inherited an expansion team.
The last time a #1 overall QB draft pick joined a team coming off a non-losing record was 1990's Jeff George, who joined a Colts squad coming off an 8-8 campaign. But that was an anomaly, as Indy traded 22-year-old future 5x Pro Bowl WR Andre Rison that offseason to move up in the draft to land George, and all-world RB Eric Dickerson was post-prime and frequently hurt after George arrived.
This brings me to the mysteriously middling Trevor Lawrence. Much like other QBs taken #1 overall, he entered the league accustomed to winning. He had an 86-4 record across high school and college. He joined a franchise coming off a 1-15 season. The lone offensive bright spots were UDFA rookie lead RB James Robinson and seemingly ascending 24-year-old WR D.J. Chark.
But Robinson peaked statistically that year before Lawrence's arrival. Chark peaked the year before that. Equipped mostly with playmakers who would be out of the league within 2-3 years, Lawrence "led" his team to three wins while leading the NFL in interceptions -- just as Peyton Manning did as a 1998 rookie. Except Peyton was joined by 25-year-old Marshall Faulk and 26-year-old Marvin Harrison. Lawrence never had a chance in his debut season.
Four years later, Lawrence is one of the most fascinating fantasy players, period. A guy who was the overall QB12 as recently as 2023, and right before that, the QB7 in his breakout sophomore campaign. Someone who apparently has the talent to be one of the best in the game, but who hasn't "put it all together" -- whether due to his own mistakes, his injuries, injuries to others, offensive line challenges, and/or other common issues that dampen QB ceilings.
Some #1 QB draft picks like Tim Couch, Sam Bradford, and JaMarcus Russell underwhelm repeatedly before exiting the stage for good. Others like Alex Smith and Baker Mayfield find their groove only after switching teams later in their career
Lawrence has shown too much promise to fit into the former camp. But his QB20 ADP suggests he's undraftable in nearly every one-QB league. It doesn't make sense to me. He has one of the best young WR duos in the league and as many as three starter-caliber running backs (or realistically one plus a couple of question marks).
At his best, he's a weekly fantasy starter. Still only 25 years old, he probably hasn't shown us what his "best" looks like. Joe Burrow turned 25 during his first full (healthy) season. Jordan Love wasn't even a starter until his age-25 campaign. Mayfield was a reclamation project for the Panthers and Rams at age 27.
It's easy to ignore Lawrence because of a spotty early-career track record. And maybe he'll need two or three more years to reach his potential. But with an ADP that's only two spots ahead of Cam Ward and only three ahead of Matthew Stafford, this probably will be the last best time for dynasty managers to buy low.
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