When I'm torn between drafting Player A or Player B, one of my go-to tiebreakers is their team's offensive prowess. For example, many #2 WRs in high-powered aerial attacks do better than #1's earning targets from bottom-tier QBs. 125-touch glorified handcuffs generally are worth more in offenses that consistently score.
But even seemingly obvious theories could use some stats to support it. So let's look at the six teams that scored the fewest offensive touchdowns last season.
Of the 100 highest-scoring offensive fantasy players, only one played in Cleveland: Jerry Jeudy, who finished as the overall-46. The Giants had only one player (Malik Nabers, overall-24) in the top 80. New England's highest scorer was Drake Maye (overall-95). Vegas had two guys in the top 100: Brock Bowers (32) and Jakobi Meyers (59). Tennessee had only one in the top 70 (Tony Pollard at #70). And Dallas (tied for the fifth-fewest offensive TDs with 33) had only one guy in the top 70: CeeDee Lamb at #31.
The law of averages would suggest that any given season, a team could reasonably expect to have two -- and occasionally three -- top-70 performers. But the teams that most struggled to find the end zone last year averaged only one top-70 player. If you picked the "right" player (generally the one with the best preseason ADP), you sometimes met or came close to meeting expectations. But most players on these teams were borderline irrelevant.
By contrast, the 2024 teams with the most touchdowns averaged 3x the number of top-70 players as teams with the fewest touchdowns. Detroit fielded five players in the top 70, including three in the top 14. Buffalo had two in the top 70 (specifically, the top 30). Baltimore had three in the top 70, while Tampa Bay had two (plus Rachaad White at #71, but we won't count him). And the Bengals (four) and Commanders (two) round out the top TD teams.
The results in 2023 were similar. The six teams with the fewest offensive touchdowns averaged only 1.2 guys in the top 70, compared to an average of 3.2 players among the six team with the most TDs. In 2022, the Rams and Bucs tied for the sixth-fewest touchdowns, so we need to include both. That means the *seven* fewest-TD teams averaged 1.4 top-70 performers, compared to an average of 3.2 for the six most-TD teams.
This rundown is both obvious and, I believe, useful -- not only because even the most obvious theories should be backed by data/logic, but also because not everyone buys into it and/or thinks about it when drafting. If this theory were universally embraced and applied, then players' market values would reflect these trends.
On the FF4W podcast a couple weeks ago, I talked about the Saints' fantasy values and whether we should draft anyone not named Alvin Kamara. New Orleans is widely viewed as having one of the worst offenses. There is a decent chance that they'll be among the league's lowest-TD teams. And yet, based on FantasyPros' average of nearly 100 expert rankings, this team has two players in the top 60: Kamara (41) and Chris Olave (58).
We have recent historical evidence pointing to weak fantasy outputs for low-TD teams. But most experts believe New Orleans will buck this trend. There's a good chance Kamara or Olave is getting drafted one or two rounds too early.
Touchdowns often can mean the difference between a good fantasy year and a great one. Last season, Mark Andrews had a 55-673 receiving line. Dalton Schultz's was 53-532. That equates to roughly a one-point-per-game difference. Not much. Schultz actually averaged about one more target per game than Andrews. But heading into this season, Andrews' ADP (TE7) crushes Schultz's (TE28). One major reason? Andrews was last year's TE6, while Schultz was the TE20. Why? Because Andrews had 11 scores, while Schultz had only two. Why (again)? Because Baltimore had 71% more offensive scores than Houston.
Yes, Andrews was a significant reason why. But he was arguably more a beneficiary of a high-octane, Lamar-Jackson-led offense in which he more than doubled Schultz's red-zone targets, resulting in all 11 of Andrews' TDs. It's reasonable to believe that Schultz's insanely low ADP does not reflect Houston's improved/healthier offense, which should result in a lot more touchdowns -- and better overall production for their starting TE.
One final thought: If we break down fantasy scorers from top to bottom, we'll often find that the higher the scorer, the greater the impact touchdowns had on their scoring. So last year, 37% of the fantasy points racked up by top-10 scorers came from touchdowns. Among the top 11-20 scorers, that drops to 36%. 21-30: 30%. 31-40: 22%. 41-50: 21%. There are exceptions. But for the most part, the pattern holds.
I'm not investing in Saints this year in the belief that most of their playmakers will frequently struggle to reach the end zone. The same is true for the Browns. The numbers consistently suggest greater risks when investing in low-TD teams. Some risks are worth taking -- like drafting a boom-bust rookie. But low-TD teams don't offer nearly enough boom.
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