Entering last season, I pushed the idea that Rachaad White was one of the most overvalued starting RBs, while rookie teammate Bucky Irving was one of the most undervalued backup RBs.
Entering this summer, I was convinced that the opposite was true: Irving is significantly overvalued, while White is an RB to draft a round early. My hope was that neither guy would make much noise in camp, keeping both below the radar and stabilizing their vastly different ADPs (Irving RB10 / White RB41), so that I could swoop in and snag White at or right before his 11th-round value.
Now White's sidelined with a groin injury. This creates chaos. When we don't have a good read on a player's value, chaos is good. Let the market under- or over-react, revealing where a player's bargain and bust points are.
But I believed I *did* have a good read on White's value. And this is when chaos is bad.
Irving wasn't a heavy-workload RB for most of college. In his final year, he paired 56 receptions with a relatively modest (for a bell cow) 186 carries. Yeah, he could handle 200-250 touches. But there's a big difference between 250 and 350 in the NFL. And we don't yet know how he'll respond to bigger workloads. Last year he had 249 regular-season touches (plus 19 in the playoffs) and finished as the RB19 in points per game. To match his current RB10 ADP, he'll probably need 300-325 touches, and maybe even 350 -- and/or a meaningful uptick in TDs.
Playing out the final year of his rookie contract, White has seemed like a strong bounce-back candidate. Last year marked his most efficient pro campaign, posting a career-high 2.7 rushing-yards-after-first-contact despite a career-low 1.6 rushing-yards-before-first-contact. That's really hard to do, and it reinforces why he enjoyed a career best broken-tackle rate -- and a better rate than Irving's. Additionally, his 1.02 fantasy points per touch bested Irving's 0.98.
This is not to say White should be ranked ahead of Irving, who clearly has *looked* the part of a lead back. But their market values have diminished White's abilities and likely impact. Since I believe the Bucs won't overload Irving ahead of a potential deep playoff run, a 275-175 Irving-White split has seemed reasonable. That would put White -- last year's RB23 in points per game -- firmly in the top-30 conversation.
His injury has the potential to elevate former UDFA Sean Tucker, who ran very well in a limited capacity last season. He's built similarly to White, has comparable college bell cow experience, and is adept in the passing game. So Tucker's ascent might not be temporary, even if White returns next week. Again, that would be "bad" chaos.
Several teams have three seemingly capable RBs -- or at least the potential to field three capable RBs. If Tucker takes a step forward in White's absence, Tampa Bay would have the luxury of rotating its running backs more than many fantasy managers want to see. This is a high-powered offense. They won four games last year by 23+ points and two others by 17. There's room for three guys to be productive.
And that's the risk when someone like White gets hurt. Because if Tucker makes it difficult for head coach Todd Bowles to keep him sidelined, the normal either/or decision matrix for two-man backfields will be replaced by a less predictable "Irving + two backups" situation. The longer White is out, the greater the risk that neither he nor Tucker will be draftable in 10-team leagues.
---