Second, Dallas sending Micah Parsons to Green Bay obviously is a big deal on an NFL level. And some are suggesting it's also a big deal on a fantasy level -- that the Cowboys' diminished defense means more production for Dak Prescott and his receivers.
Today's FF4W podcast episode explains why that's not accurate, using data from the past 24 seasons. You can find it on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and anywhere else podcasts call home. If you listen to it, or if you've listened to other episodes, please consider posting a review. I'm leaning toward continuing to record during the season. If they're helpful to you, that helps me figure out where to put my fantasy attention.
Third, we're in a pretty interesting fantasy moment for running backs. Four 30+ year-old starters have ADPs suggesting they're weekly starters: Derrick Henry (RB5), Alvin Kamara (RB15), James Conner (RB20), and Aaron Jones (RB25). Last year, only two 30+ year-old running backs started more than three games. The year before, only one topped 300 rushing yards.
We're witnessing the tail end of the careers of a dynastic group. Henry's been a top-4 RB four times. Kamara three times. Jones once. The still-capable Austin Ekeler (RB40 ADP) finished in the top 5 three times. All four guys finished in the top 9 six years ago. It's almost inconceivable that they're still relevant today. It would be like 2025 fantasy heroes Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, De'Von Achane, and Chase Brown all still starting in 2030.
I discussed Conner's almost certain regression on a recent podcast. Jones might be forced into a timeshare with Jordan Mason. Ekeler is merely a complementary back. We'll see how long Kamara can last against defenses that know a key to winning is to stop him. Only a healthy Henry has a seemingly smooth path to more big fantasy numbers.
Not surprisingly, all of them are slight-to-significant fades on my draft board. Betting on 30-something RBs is a little like betting on 34+ year-old WRs/TEs or 38+ year-old QBs. We know what's achievable. But it's hard to predict what's likely. And in the absence of understanding what's likely, it's often safer to fade.
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