I didn't intend to spend two consecutive days on the Commanders. But after last night's drama, it seems necessary.
One day after it was reported that Washington's been shopping Brian Robinson, both Chris Rodriguez and seventh-round rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt rolled over Cincinnati in what might be their final preseason appearances of the summer. And Robinson didn't suit up in what might be his last appearance on or near the Commanders' sideline.
If you're a JCM true believer, you might now have all the justification needed to draft him. If you're still as wary as I am, it's a tough time to trust any Washington running back. Robinson has held steady this past week with an RB29 ADP. Ekeler's down two spots to RB45. Rodriguez remains undraftable (according to the market) at RB182. Jeremy McNichols (RB137) could be a spoiler. And JCM's RB68 ADP seems ready to spike
But all this could change very quickly if Robinson's sent packing. There's a path where JCM pushes into the top 40 (and would that even be a good thing?), while Rodriguez climbs to the top 60. The latter has run very well on 86 carries in two NFL campaigns. JCM has generated massive camp buzz. Neither guy does much in the passing game. With Austin Ekeler on the team, neither has to.
And that's still the problem, at least for me. If Robinson leaves, there's the potential for managers to over-invest in JCM, buying into the glowing reports and last night's visual proof of talent. He's a 24-year-old rookie who never cleared 200 touches in a college season. Why does that matter? Since 2000, the best rookie-year fantasy ranking for a sixth- or seventh-round RB with zero 200+ touch college campaigns is 37th. The average is 120th. When considering rookie RBs with no 200+ touch college season who were drafted in *any* round, only two of 235 finished in the top 32.
Think about that: less than 1% of "low-usage" college RBs post top-32 rookie numbers.
That's why when I write about JCM, it has little to do with what he's shown on the field. Instead, it has almost everything to do with historical precedent. Even if he wins the starting job, I believe it would take a minor miracle for him to be a weekly streamer.
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