Imagine there are 32 convenience stores in your town. Each sells $1 lottery tickets. You have $32 to spend. You're told (by some all-knowing force) that tomorrow's lottery drawing will yield one winning ticket in each store.
Where should you buy your lottery tickets?
Of course, "should* is subjective. And that's the point. Some of you might want to drop $1 in each store, hoping to strike gold multiple times. Others might hedge at 5, 10, or a few more stores. And some of you might go all in a one store: 32 chances to claim a single prize.
The way you answer this question might reflect how you invest in running backs. Are you the kind of manager who drafts multiple RB starters, rolling the dice that they stay healthy and productive? Or do you snag a couple of starters as well as their handcuffs -- limiting your breadth of RB coverage, but also bolstering backfield stability? Maybe you split the difference, selecting multiple RB starters and then taking a chance on one or two handcuffs on other teams; if things broke perfectly, you'd have three or four starting RBs by the fantasy playoffs.
My preference is to lock in a couple starters and their handcuffs. I want stability. If the realistic best-case scenario is having four starting RBs, and if the realistic worst-case scenario is having zero starting RBs, then I want pretty high confidence of having two starting RBs -- whether the actual starter or their handcuff -- nearly every week of the season.
It doesn't matter what kind of manager you are, as long as you're happy with the results. And we also shouldn't feel pressure to stick with just one strategy. For example, I altered my RB approach in 2018 because I had the #1 overall pick -- meaning I could take players back-to-back after the first. So I targeted muddled backfields and drafted Jamaal Williams (RB38 ADP) and Aaron Jones (RB49) at the 8/9 turn.
This year, that might mean Kaleb Johnson (RB27 ADP) and Jaylen Warren (RB31). Or some combination of Travis Etienne (RB35), Tank Bigsby (RB43), and Bhayshul Tuten (RB48). That trio is surely riskier than Johnson/Warren, but they're also cheaper; based on overall ADP, you should be able to get them around the 8th, 12th, and 14th rounds, respectively. That's not a lot to give up *if* one of them ends up being a consistent 14+ touch starter.
But if you're a "one-ticket-per-store" type of manager, you're not tied to team-based decisions. If you get Saquon Barkley in the first round, you're not worrying about taking Will Shipley and/or AJ Dillon before an opponent gets them. You just want value wherever you can find it. You're betting that Barkley stays healthy and/or some of your lottery tickets on other teams cash in.
So when people ask for my two cents on drafting, my answers generally reflect how I respond to thought experiments like this one. Do I want a low probability of broad success, or a higher probability of narrower success? For me, it's almost always the latter.
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