"32 teams in 32 days" is (finally?) over. I started these in June 2016, kicking off with Carson Palmer and the Arizona Cardinals. Before I did these, getting back into fantasy was like hitting snooze on my alarm. But 32-in-32 is like a jug of coffee. By forcing myself to write these each day, I'm also forcing myself to analyze nearly every player.
For example, one of you recently asked about the hype surrounding 7th-round rookie RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Is it legit? So I opened up my spreadsheet on every NFL RBs' college workload and fantasy production for the past 23 seasons. Because regurgitating his ADP and quoting some reporter isn't very interesting or actionable.
After sharing my findings in a comment on this blog, I recorded and released an 11-minute podcast episode that went beyond Croskey-Merritt, addressing whether we trust *any* 7th-round RB in his rookie year -- not just this season, but for the long term -- again, pulling directly from my RB Workload spreadsheet.
Another example: preseason games. A lot of people talk about them. I get it. We miss football. Now there's football. So we're invested. A rookie gets four receptions and touchdown. We make a mental note to target ahead of his ADP. Because wow, he looks fast / has great hands / hugged his mom after the game.
But just like with Croskey-Merritt, I decided to look up the top preseason Week 1 performers in each of the last three summers. So many impressive stat lines from virtual unknowns . . . who are still virtual unknowns today: Michael Bandy, Kendric Pryor, John Stephens Jr., Godwin Igwebuike, Trishton Jackson, Ian Wheeler, and so on.
A fourth-round rookie reeling in three balls for 42 yards and a score matters. An undrafted free agent fighting for a roster spot racking up 80 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries doesn't matter as much. Often it doesn't matter at all.
So when preseason action started, I recorded and released a 10-minute podcast episode to assess when we should pay attention to preseason game performances, as well as how these performances might shift ADPs, helping us identify when we should fade on the hype.
By the way, "fading on the hype" is as powerful as buying on the silence. Jordan Love's relatively quiet 2023 preseason presented a huge buying opportunity, because he wasn't getting thrown onto a lot of managers' radars. I urged readers to buy on the silence. Three years earlier, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was widely viewed as a can't-miss rookie starter in a high-powered offense. His ADP climbed all the way to RB5 or RB6 on the eve of Week 1. I urged readers to fade on the hype.
Preseasons can mess with people's heads. My job -- my hope -- is to keep grounding our decisions on what we should know, rather than on what others *tell* us we should know. "You have to draft Saquon Barkley in the top 3" isn't as useful as "historical evidence points to consistent and significant regressions for RBs -- particularly RBs who are 27+ years old -- the following season." The first is simple and popular. The second requires more explanation and is far less popular. I always choose the latter.
As you prepare for your drafts, use me as a resource. If you like reading, keep reading this daily blog. If you prefer listening, keep listening to the daily FF4W podcast. If you like rankings, donate whatever you want, and I'll send you the link to my continually updated top 400+ players. If you want to use me more, subscribe to Text Anytime so you can message me during your next draft, when you're debating who to drop ahead of Week 4, when you're considering a midseason trade, or all of the above.
The next three weeks will tell us a lot about what we should know and a lot about what we should ignore. When we know how to spot the difference, we win. And I want you to win. So let's get to work.
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