How surprised should we be if Emeka Egbuka leads all Bucs WRs in fantasy points? I went into this summer convinced that he and Chris Godwin were dramatically undervalued. Mike Evans (who turned 32 yesterday) is on the cusp of being on the downside of his career. In other words, while it's not easily apparent yet, he is at an age when steep drop-offs become "when" rather than "if" questions.
In recent weeks, much has changed. Godwin's injury recovery is expected to continue into October . . . which means it could also continue into November. Tampa Bay's first nine games include three home contests versus the Jets, 49ers, and Patriots, plus winnable road matchups against the Falcons, Texans, Seahawks, and Saints. A 6-3 start in a weak NFC South seems doable.
This team has played six playoff games in the past four seasons. Godwin has missed three of them. Surely there will be at least some patience for a player who's enjoyed only one healthy season since 2019. And (almost) surely they'll have the luxury of keeping him on ice until he's 100%. That might mean holding him out until after their Week 9 bye.
The same goes for Jalen McMillan, a 2024 third-round pick and legitimate spoiler candidate. Now he too is expected to miss the start of the season, perhaps pushing into late November or even early December. What had been a deep receiving corps is now -- at least for the first month or two -- merely "normal": two solid starting WRs and a capable starting TE.
And this is why ADP usually cannot keep pace with reality. Egbuka's WR45 ADP puts him behind fringe weekly starters like Khalil Shakir, Ricky Pearsall, and Rome Odunze. The rookie's overall-101 ADP is worse than those of Cam Skattebo, still-unsigned Quinshon Judkins, and "Washington can't unload him fast enough" Brian Robinson.
Interestingly, Godwin has plummeted to WR57 / overall-158. McMillan is at 76/244. Cade Otton is still wallowing outside the top 20 TEs.
Somehow, Egbuka has not earned a market bump befitting a high-upside, first-round rookie who *should* finish the season #2 or #3 in Bucs' receiver targets, with #2 increasingly being the most likely outcome. And if Evans shows notable signs of aging, Egbuka could do in Tampa Bay would Jaxon Smith-Njigba did in Year 2 in Seattle, when he led all Seahawks in targets, catches, receiving yards, and receiving TDs.
I'm wary of over-hyping rookies. But the market seems to be under-hyping. Egbuka is squarely in my top 40 with room to jump inside the top 32 if Godwin's outlook continues to sour in the next week.
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