In the modern NFL, a lot of fantasy backfields are tough to figure out. In the first decade of this century, an average of 15.4 RBs per season had 250+ carries and 8.7 had 300+. In the years since, those averages plummeted to 8.5 and 2.5, respectively.
This, in turn, has impacted fantasy production. The top 12 RBs in the century's opening decade averaged 294.2 points, compared to 273.4 ever since. Even if we don't know the numbers, we know the results: fewer reliable bell cows and more risk taking in fantasy drafts.
The Jaguars and Texans are prime examples of complex RB corps. Last year, Tank Bigsby led Jacksonville with 168 carries despite officially starting only one game (and playing in 15 others) versus Travis Etienne's 15 starts in 15 games. Last summer Etienne was the "obvious" bell cow with an RB8 ADP. This summer he's the 1A based on market value (RB30), but it wouldn't be surprising if Bigsby (RB42) becomes the 1A. The market also views speedy fourth-round rookie Bhayshul Tuten (RB48) as a legit contender for meaningful touches.
Complicating things further is Etienne's expiring contract and the team's perceived longshot odds (around 28% currently) to win their division. Making the playoffs (roughly 40% odds) would become a much steeper climb if their season starts poorly. Their season begins with a very winnable home matchup against the Panthers. After that it's @Bengals, Texans, @49ers, Chiefs, and Seahawks. A 3-3 record -- in light of an arguably softer schedule the rest of the year -- might compel them to push onward with their current roster.
But a 2-4 start (or worse) *could* compel them to unload Etienne before the trade deadline. Because next offseason they'd need to decide whether to pay him or wait a year and pay Bigsby (or neither). Paying both is a near impossibility. So I think they have only a few weeks to decide whether to (a) go all in on a playoff push, (b) commit to Etienne for the long term, or (c) turn to Bigsby (and maybe Tuten or longshot LeQuint Allen) ahead of 2026.
The fantasy implications are huge if we believe Jacksonville's offense will return at least to 2022/2023 form, when they were 10th/13th in points scored. If Etienne stays, the backfield could be a mess, and the ADPs for all three players might end up being pretty accurate. If Etienne goes, the bell-cow-ready Bigsby could be one of the biggest steals, while Etienne could drop to 1B role on a new team. And if Bigsby's traded, Etienne could return to near-eliteness, especially if Tuten isn't entirely NFL ready.
That last scenario is based on the realistic premise that Etienne isn't washed up -- that he too could return to 2022/2023 form. And/or this team might feature him prominently in September in the hope of driving up his value, which hit rock bottom by the end of last season. One of his most interesting stats is that he broke only three tackles last season compared to 31 the year before. There's room for him to pop if Jacksonville commits to him early on.
When it comes to the Jags' RB corps, managers have to contend with a lot of scenarios. It's a three-dimensional backfield in a league that still has plenty of two-dimensional backfields, like the Ravens, Bengals, Falcons, and Raiders. We draft those teams' starters expecting dominance, or at least a dominant touch share.
With Jacksonville, we have to choose whether to tread carefully or boldly. The former probably means passing on Etienne, Bigsby, and Tuten. The latter means drafting based on a predicted outcome (e.g., Etienne's gone before the trade deadline). The former is safer for sensible reasons -- there is so much we don't know. The latter is riskier, and yet the payoff is far higher, because it's likely that one of those Jaguars will end up being a bargain based on ADP.
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