Among QBs expected to start the entire season (if healthy), Aaron Rodgers has the worst ADP with a QB28. Sam Darnold is the next best with a QB27. Geno Smith comes in at QB26. Apparently, the market doesn't trust former Jets quarterbacks.
For all you Superflexers, deep-leaguers, and dynasty managers, I believe scanning the "worst" locked-in starting QBs is a must-do before drafting. 2023 is a good example: the lowest ADPs among anticipated season-long starters were Desmond Ridder (QB32), Baker Mayfield (QB31), Mac Jones (QB30), Sam Howell (QB28), Jordan Love (QB26), and C.J. Stroud (QB24). A 50/50 chance at a bust or a breakout. Not bad for what many managers might see as a throwaway pick.
In these league scenarios, I want reliability. Choosing between Anthony Richardson (QB29 ADP) and Daniel Jones (QB37), or Russell Wilson (QB30) and Jaxson Dart (QB32), seems unnecessarily risky compared to rolling the dice on Darnold and Geno. And although I haven't trusted Rodgers in three years, at least you'll have someone getting you 12+ points (and ideally 14+). Because it's quite possible Richardson could start Week 1, get hurt in Week 5, return in Week 10, and play himself out of the starting job by Week 14. That uncertainty means you're burning an extra bench spot on an extra quarterback who might or might not start from week to week.
Michael Penix (QB25 ADP) and Bryce Young (QB24) should be behind Darnold and Geno in my opinion. Regardless, those jobs are theirs to lose. They're going to have some decent performances, and maybe even a few great ones.
Climb a little higher, and things get dicey. The aged Matthew Stafford (QB23 ADP) seems to have healh concerns every summer. Except with each passing year, those concerns become more newsworthy. Why would managers take him ahead of more durable weekly starters like Geno and Darnold?
And that brings us to rookie #1-overall-pick Cam Ward (QB22 ADP). Like Caleb Williams last preseason and Bryce Young the preseason before that, Ward hasn't looked great in his first professional action. Yes, he can be excused for last night's flop, as most of Tennessee's starters were on the sidelines. But he's inherited an offense with growing receiver question marks. #1 WR Calvin Ridley is turning 31 in December. #2 WR Tyler Lockett turns 33 next month. 29-year-old journeyman Van Jefferson has cracked 370 receiving yards only once in five seasons. Chig Okonkwo arguably is merely "solid" by NFL starting TE standards.
I don't see a likely scenario where this offense overachieves. Aside from Rodgers and Young, every other starting QB below Ward's ADP has a more explosive offense, and by extension, a higher ceiling.
Ward has looked fine, and "fine" might be good enough in Year 1 as this franchise tries to regain its footing. But managers need more than "fine, and the best place to gamble on that late in Superflex, deep-league, and dynasty drafts is with two of the three lowest-ranked full-time starters: Darnold and Geno.
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