Yesterday a Text Anytime subscriber had his long-awaited draft. He and I texted back and forth for a little over an hour--about 100 total exchanges, which comes to about a penny per text. Hopefully he got his money's worth.
Today I want to talk about Brian Robinson Jr., because the subscriber asked me what I thought about him right before his sixth- or seventh-round pick. My reply was simply, "I wouldn't." Yes, he's valued about right at his ADP. But he's also in that dreaded "dead zone" of fantasy RBs: good enough to be an NFL starter, but not great enough to be a fantasy difference-maker.
While he rattled off six double-digit performances at the start of last season, he had only three the rest of the way while also missing three games. The year before was his best fantasy campaign to date, ranking him as the RB22 in points per game. Again, solid. And not the kind of player I'd be excited to draft. Notably, his targets dropped by about one per game from 2023 to 2024, not coincidentally with the arrival of Austin Ekeler.
Robinson's a good example of why rankings sometimes are difficult to interpret. I wouldn't drop Robinson (RB29 ADP) 10 spots, because he'll probably finish closer to his ADP. At the same time, if I wanted a somewhat high-ceiling RB (decent top-20 potential, let's say), there are probably 40 RBs I'd rather get -- pretty much everyone ahead of him, plus a bunch of guys behind him.
Ironically, about 30 minutes after my "I wouldn't" comment, Bleacher Report's Jordan Schultz reported that Washington is "shopping" Robinson. Pretty unusual for a strong playoff contender to unload their starting running back. One argument is that it makes sense with Robinson entering the final year of his contract, and that this franchise needs to be savvy about its upcoming investments with, for example, Terry McLaurin demanding a big payday."
But that doesn't ring entirely true. Only the Raiders, Chargers, and Titans have more cap space beginning in 2026, and no team has more space than Washington beginning in 2027. Jayden Daniels won't need to be paid until 2028. Surely they could invest $8 million to $10 million (approximation) in Robinson for each of the next two or three years to shore up their backfield.
So maybe this story will prove to be a non-story. Maybe they want Robinson to come to the table for extension talks, and any concerns that he might become a 1B on another team -- likely lowering his value ahead of fresh contract talks -- would motivate him to give the Commanders a hometown discount in exchange for guaranteed financial security.
Of course, this all matters in fantasy because of the fairly significant ripple effect if he's traded. It probably would be to a strong AFC playoff contender, because giving him up to an NFC contender wouldn't make any sense. The recipient would need to have a pretty shallow backfield behind its starter, because trading for a starter only to make him a third-stringer also wouldn't make sense.
So if we start with (in no particular order) the Ravens, Bills, Bengals, Chiefs, Chargers, Texans, and Broncos. Among those teams, the Ravens, Bills, and Broncos have pretty solid 1-2 punches, assuming Buffalo still believes in 2024 fourth-rounder Ray Davis. While Robinson presumably would be an upgrade over Kareem Hunt and Elijah Mitchell, Kansas City probably is set. Najee Harris *should* return to the field sometime in September for the new-look Chargers' backfield. And while Joe Mixon might also miss a game or two in September, the combination of Nick Chubb, Dameon Pierce, and Woody Marks gives them enough firepower to start the season.
That Cincy, where there's Chase Brown, and then . . . nearly 30-year-old Samaje Perine and sixth-round rookie Tahj Brooks, who's collected only 26 yards on 10 carries. Interestingly, Cincy and Washington are facing off tonight.
If you're drafting in the coming days, and if Robinson's immediate future remains murky, then I'd fade him at least a couple rounds beyond his ADP. If he's sent away, seventh-round rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt and/or Chris Rodriguez clearly would get a bump. The question is how much. And if you're wondering whether that would make one or both of them draftable, my answer would be "I wouldn't."
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