Many managers are familiar with the RB "dead zone" in drafts. I've found it occurs around the sixth and/or seventh round in 12-team leagues. Some of you might notice it in the fifth, and others in the eighth or even ninth.
The exact spot doesn't matter. What does matter is people observing how these RBs are, on average, much riskier than RBs taken earlier, as well as those taken later. Doesn't mean they're the worst. It simply means that the value you're getting by burning, say, a sixth-rounder often pales compared to the value of (for example) 13th- and 14th round handcuffs.
This is because a lot of these running backs are not guaranteed starting jobs by midseason. 2024's Devin Singletary is a good example: a moderately declining RB facing competition from rookie fifth-rounder Tyrone Tracy. We know what happened. But in August and early September, some managers felt pressure to add a running back -- maybe because they felt they needed two starters, even if the second starter realistically might not be relevant by December.
Singletary was the RB30 / overall-90 last summer. Several other starting RBs in that ADP vicinity lost their jobs later that year, including Zamir White (RB23 / overall-66), Javonte Williams (RB26 / overall-79), and Zack Moss (RB32 / overall-91).
And that next tier (or multiple small tiers) of running backs consists largely of high-upside glorified handcuffs, 1Bs who could eventually take over, and 1Bs temporarily filling in for an injured starter -- guys like Chase Brown (RB36 / overall-108), J.K. Dobbins (RB41 / overall-130), and Zach Charbonnet (RB44 / overall-144).
Does historical data support anecdotal evidence that drafting RBs *after* the dead zone increases the likelihood of higher returns? Short answer: yes.
Let's look at small groupings, beginning with RB21-25 ADPs. Across 13 seasons from 2012 thru 2024, they averaged 136.6 fantasy points. The next group of five (RBR26-30 ADPs) averaged 135.4 points. The next five (RB31-35) netted 119.2, and the next five (RB36-40) averaged 116.4. Then something interesting happens: RB41-45 netted 131.5.
For example, last preseason the RB21 (David Montgomery) came off the board in the late-5th / early-6th rounds based on ADP. Jaylen Warren (RB31) was roughly an eighth rounder. J.K. Dobbins (RB41) was an 11th-rounder. Dobbins went toe-to-toe with a running back often picked about six rounds earlier. Warren was merely "fine." The value play was waiting.
And it's not just about Dobbins. Chuba Hubbard had an RB42 ADP. Trey Benson (RB43), Zach Charbonnet (RB44), and Rico Dowdle (RB45). Among these five players, only Benson finished outside the top 25.
You might wonder if last year's incredible showing by most of the RB41-45 group skewed these numbers. The answer is "not really." If we examine only 2012 thru 2023, the five groups (beginning with RB21-25) averaged 136.3, 134.2, 122.7, 117, and 128.0 points, respectively. The RB41-45's are fairly consistent outliers.
There are even more notable outliers. Let's isolate all 13 RB30's from 2012 thru 2024, then do the same for the RB31's, RB32's, and so on. Which spots averaged the most points? RB41 wins with 154.9, followed by RB42 (139.7), RB36 (132.6), RB44 (131.3), and RB52 (130.2). The next highest is RB47 (129.6). Looking at these numbers, why would we lunge for dead-zone running backs? We need to tread carefully, knowing there's significantly more value grabbing two or three late-round options in the RB40-50 range.
This year, plenty of dead-zone RBs jump out as relatively high-risk picks, including the aging Aaron Jones (RB25), Tyrone Tracy (RB27), and Travis Etienne (RB31). But once we move into double-digit rounds, there's Tank Bigsby (RB42), Jaydon Blue (RB44), Rachaad White (RB46), Braelon Allen (RB47), and Trey Benson (RB49).
Would you rather (based on current ADPs) use a sixth- and seventh-round pick on Jones and Tracy, or 12th- and 13th-round picks on White, Allen, and Benson? Knowing how much value I could absorb from other positions in the sixth and seventh rounds (Baker Mayfield, Tetairoa McMillan, George Pickens, Travis Hunter, Jaylen Waddle, Mark Andrews, and Evan Engram), I'd rather wait. And based on historical numbers, that seems to be the "safer" choice.
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