Once each preseason for roughly the past 10 years, I've walked through one of my drafts round by round, explaining how I approach the process in real time, why I made certain decisions, what mistakes I might have made, etc. This year I decided to turn that into a podcast episode, delivering a play-by-play on my first mock draft of the summer. The podcast dropped early this morning for those interested.
Some of you might relate to questions like "Should I take an elite QB now, or wait and take a great-upside bargain later?" and "When should I reach for handcuffs for my starting RBs?" There's nothing filtered about my process. I probably reached for Jaxon Smith-Njigba too early. If it were a real draft, I might have regretted taking Lamar Jackson in the 3rd instead of snagging a must-start RB/WR/TE and then waiting for Dak Prescott in the 7th or 8th. Maybe I would've been better off drafting Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby back-to-back instead of Jordan Mason and Zach Charbonnet.
To be clear, the point of these annual play-by-plays is *not* to say, "Look how good I draft." That's boring and self-serving. Instead, it's a reminder that I'm a regular manager who does the best I can with the information I have. Just like everyone else. And maybe some of the challenges and opportunities I confront during drafts are similar to what you confront.
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After the Raiders signed Amari Cooper earlier this week, I recorded an episode discussing why his WR87 ADP (which was WR100 two days earlier) probably would reach the 50's by the end of the preseason, and that I'd advise targeting him with a top-50-WR pick. He's currently at WR66. Interestingly, Jakobi Meyers was at WR37 when Cooper signed, and now it's WR40.
So one of the team's two top wideouts is popping, and the other's value is remaining largely the same. Not interestingly surprising, and also interesting, especially considering Geno Smith is exactly where he was before Cooper's signing: QB26 / overall-189. And demoted WR Tre Tucker -- who was the de facto #2 beforehand -- has shifted from WR112 to WR113. Meanwhile, consensus #1 TE Brock Bowers has moved from overall-17 to overall-18.
What's happening here? How can Cooper's arrival be a boon for his fantasy value, but have no material impact on the four players most impacted?
Tracking this stuff enables us to spot the bargains and fades. If the ADPs of Meyers, Bowers, and Tucker stay fairly constant, and if Cooper (as expected) improves dramatically, then Geno probably is undervalued. Or if Geno doesn't deserve a bump, then we probably should conclude that Meyers (likely the most impacted player) is overvalued.
After Cooper's signing, I decided not to mess with Meyers and Bowers and instead gave Geno a meaningful bump to QB21. That's where process meets action: we try to understand the ramifications of a big roster move, and then adjust values based on what we believe are the most likely outcomes.
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