Yesterday I walked through preliminary research that built on my past findings on RB regression rates following 400+ touch campaigns. Last night I wrapped up the research. Now let's combine it with other research to assess why Saquon Barkley is a "full fade" at his RB2 ADP.
In the history of the NFL, only nine running backs have posted their first 400+ touch season (including the playoffs) after age 26: John Riggins, Roger Craig, Dorsey Levens, Tiki Barber, Priest Holmes, Corey Dillon, Shaun Alexander, Marshawn Lynch, and finally Saquon Barkley last year. Their touch totals in order were 468, 455, 467, 404, 423, 434, 448, 403, and 482 for Barkley -- the highest total for any first-time 27+ year-old member of this 400 club.
Of the eight pre-Barkley RBs, seven scored fewer fantasy points the following season. Their average statistical regression was 42.8%. Only Lynch performed better the next year -- a 9.8% bump year-over-year. But for context, Lynch's touch total that initial season was "only" 403 -- 16.4% less than Barkley's last year.
So Barkley is in a somewhat familiar and unique situation. With one exception, those who came before him have flopped. And yet we've never seen a 27+ year-old RB get this many touches after never clearing 400 touches previously. In fact, his 482 touches last season were 28.5% above his previous career high. This isn't a good sign.
Then there's his offensive snap counts. The earliest I've ever found player-snap numbers is in 2012. Since then, only six RBs have racked up 1,000+ offensive snaps: Ray Rice, Zeke Elliott, Christian McCaffrey (twice), Najee Harris, and (last year) Kyren Williams and Barkley. Rice was 25 years old; his fantasy production dropped 35.1% the following season. Zeke (23 years old) ticked downward only 5.3%. McCaffrey declined 80.8% right after his age-23 season and 87.8% right after his age-27 season. Harris (23 years old) dipped 25.8%.
Kyren Williams has been a fade on my draft board all summer. Barkley's relatively advanced age puts him at even greater risk. The one historical outlier was 2013's Matt Forte, whose fantasy numbers improved by 2.4% after he played 929 snaps. He was also a bit of a statistical anomaly with six 290+ touch efforts in his first seven NFL seasons. Barkley doesn't come close to that degree of durability.
So we're left with this question: Should we draft Barkley at his RB2 ADP? I get that it's a tough call, just like fading McCaffrey last summer was tough. But I think it's also the right call, because he would have to dramatically defy the odds simply to finish in the top 8.
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