Two things today. First, a reminder that if you want my top 400 fantasy rankings, donate whatever you want using any of the links far below. And if you're newer to this page, you might be hesitant to send money to a stranger. I get it. Some longtime subscribers started out donating a buck or two. Tested the waters. Made sure this was legit.
So if you've never subscribed before and want to test the waters, donate a dollar. Or a quarter. Or a penny. Then use the rankings in your next draft. If by the end of the season you found they were helpful, donate a penny or quarter or dollar or more next summer.
Second, I want to take a moment to walk through new research. This past month, one of the most common questions people have asked me is "Why do you rank Christian McCaffrey so low?" Conventional wisdom is that, because he's fully recovered after an injury-plagued season, he should be good to go. That 400+ touch campaign in 2023 is a distant memory.
I disagree. Some data I assembled in July painted a rough picture. Now I'm halfway done with the research, and the trends seem pretty actionable.
99 times in NFL history, a running back has cracked 400 touches (including the playoffs). I wanted to measure how many fantasy points they scored each year following that large workload. To prevent overcounting, this data set includes only a player's *first* 400+ touch campaign. Otherwise, a handful of players who've done this multiple times would skew the data.
The two questions I want to answer are (1) "What is the average fantasy-point shift from year to year after an initial 400+ touch performance?", and (2) "Is there a relationship between age and regression?"
The first question is straightforward, and so far the data is clear. For the partial data set I've pulled together (about half of the eventual total universe of players), the average fantasy points collected for RBs in their first 400+ touch season is 319.4. The following season, the average is only 235.3. In Year 2 after the 400+ touch effort, the average fantasy output is 218.8 points. Years, 3 thru 6 continue the steady downward pattern, all the way to 140.1. Then the numbers oscillate between 90.0 and 172.4 for the remaining years.
We might dismiss this as simply running backs getting older over time. So of course they can't sustain the fantasy production they enjoyed when they earned their first massive workload.
But the second question addresses this. For RBs ages 21 to 26 when the first hit 400+ touches, their average next-year fantasy-point decline is 24.1%. In Year 2 after that heavy workload, the decline grows to 26.2% versus the 400+ touch campaign. Then 29.7% in Year 3, followed by 37.6% in Year 4, when they're somewhere between 25 and 30 years old.
Now let's look at RBs ages 27+ when they get their first 400+ touch season. The next-season decline is 37.2%. In Year 2, it's 48.0%. Years 3 and 4 show 59.7% and 60.3%, respectively.
Again, we can dismiss this as a function of running backs getting older. But that's the point. CMC was only 23 when he first eclipsed 400 touches. His next two seasons were significantly worse than the average first-time 400+ touch RB endures. Then at age 27, he hit 400+ again. His drop last season was huge. Historically, players at his age have averaged a 56.0% decline in Year 6 after their first 400+ touch season. If 2023 were the first time he accomplished the feat, the average decline (Year 2) would be 48.0%.
So I've ranked CMC as if he's a high-risk (roughly) 50% regression candidate off his 391-point mark in 2023. I've also bumped him a bit because his ceiling is so high. That would put him around 230-250 points, which is why I've got him as a strong fade at his RB4 ADP.
In other words, I don't plan to draft him because there's almost no way he's falling into my lap at RB10-12. And that's fine with me.
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