Five Biggest Questions:
Philly has now competed in three of the last eight Super Bowls, averaging 38.7 points per game. Incredibly, despite occurring only eight years apart, their two SB victories bookended two distinct periods in franchise history that are/were surprisingly similar.
Both teams had terrific offenses and defenses. 25-year-old Carson Wentz led his team for most of the 2017 season; 26-year-old Jalen Hurts led his in 2024. 27-year-old Alshon Jeffery and 24-year-old Nelson Agholor led the '17 Eagles WR corps in targets, catches, and receiving yards. 27-year-old AJ Brown and 26-year-old Devonta Smith comfortably led last year's Eagles WR corps in those three categories.
These two teams overlapped in 2020 where it mattered most, when the overmatched Wentz was forced to cede starting duties to the rookie Hurts. In Hurts' first start, Jeffery scored the final of his 47 career touchdowns. Jalen Reagor led Philly in receiving yards. Interestingly, "backup" TE Dallas Goedert led all Eagles with six targets; he's the only Eagles playmaker still on the team.
This franchise has come a long way in a few years. The had their most wins in history (14) in 2022, and then matched it last season. It also has most of what you'd want in a fantasy-friendly roster: four in-their-prime playmakers in a top-heavy offense, plus the normally reliable (when healthy) Dallas Goedert. Last year, Hurts and Saquon Barkley accounted for 86% of the team's rushing yards and 93% of its rushing TDs. The "Big 3" receivers (Brown, Smith, and Goedert) accounted for 68% of the team's receiving yards and 71% of its receiving TDs.
Average draft positions reflect what appears to be a highly predictable offense. And yes, there are many reasons to invest in any of these players. In particular, Hurts' (QB5 ADP) uber-high floor and an uber-high ceiling make him an easy buy at his price point. On a per-game basis, Goedert should be better than his QB15 ADP. And as I shared on a recent podcast episode, Devonta Smith screams "bargain" at his WR24 ADP.
That leaves Brown and Barkley. Let's start with the easier Brown, whose recent hamstring injury should at least make managers pause. There is the potential for in-season headaches if he's not fully recovered by Week 1. His WR9 ADP assumes he'll be fine. We'll probably know in two weeks if he should drop outside the top 12. And of course that could make Jahan Dotson (WR93) semi-relevant, though that might mean top 60-70 rather than streamable.
So . . . Barkley . . . Some of you know what I'm about to say. I shared similar sentiments about Christian McCaffrey last summer. The notion that CMC should be avoided in all drafts might have seemed ridiculous. But historical regression rates after 400+ touch seasons made fading him an easy decision.
Barkley brings similar risks after his astonishingly high 482-touch campaign, including the playoffs. Only six running backs in NFL history have had more touches: Eddie George, James Wilder, DeMarco Murray, Emmitt Smith, Terrell Davis, and Jamal Anderson. All six were younger than Barkley.
From my vantage point, his RB2 ADP rejects reality, just like CMC's RB1 ADP last summer, Derrick Henry's RB3 ADP in 2021, and CMC's RB1 ADP in 2020. There's a cost to over-working running backs. Barkley regressed significantly in 2019 after a huge 2018 workload, then again in 2022 after a large 2021 workload. This year, the yellow flags are even brighter. I'm leaning into the hedge of ascending 2024 fourth-rounder Will Shipley (RB65 ADP) and capable journeyman AJ Dillon (RB79). Last year's RB65 was Dare Ogunbowale. I'm fairly confident Shipley and/or Dillon will be more productive.