Five Biggest Questions:
It's hard to sum up the Chiefs' 2024 season in a few words or even a few paragraphs. Highlights include how, even with a statistically middling Patrick Mahomes (QB14 in points per game), the franchise enjoyed its best win-loss record in history.
Consider the extraordinary hurdles they had to overcome: Their starting RB missed 10 contests. A post-prime emergency signee returned from oblivion to earn 254 touches (including the playoffs) -- his heaviest workload since his 2017 rookie year. Their #1 WR missed 13. Their #3 WR (or some might say #2, at least to start the season) missed 15. A rookie with 20 catches for 246 yards entering Week 11 turned out to be their most productive WR. Their all-world TE had his worst statistical campaign since 2015. Their backup TE had the team's third-most receiving yards and second-most receiving touchdowns.
Credit the defense. Also credit Mahomes and the most random assortment of surrounding playmakers he's ever worked with. A lot had to go right for this team to reach the Super Bowl -- like going 12-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less.
In fact, aside from the title game, Mahomes lost only one contest: Week 11 in Buffalo. How dire was their situation? Here's a rundown of K.C.'s touches and targets in the fourth quarter, when the outcome was still in doubt:
(1) Carson Steele, (2) Noah Gray, (3) Kareem Hunt, (4) DeAndre Hopkins, (5) Justin Watson, (6) Hunt, (7) JuJu Smith-Schuster, (8) Hopkins, (9) Hunt, (10) Gray, (11) Samaje Perine, (12) Perine, (13) Perine, (14) Watson, and on the last play, (15) Travis Kelce.
That's what I mean by "random assortment." We cannot measure Mahomes' 2025 outlook based on his 2024 numbers, and the market clearly understands this. His QB6 ADP makes sense, though some industry experts are still pushing the narrative that he's struggled the past two years. I don't understand the naysayers. In 2023, Watson was his #2 WR in targets (53) and yards (460). He was the co-#2 in receptions (27) with Kadarius Toney. Give him the quality of receiving personnel found in Minnesota, Detroit, and Philadelphia (for example), and he'd return to elite form.
Everyone is now (for the most part) healthy. They drafted left tackle Josh Simmons in the first round to bolster an o-line that contributed to Mahomes' career-high sack rate last year. Last year he was a "full fade" in my rankings, where I placed him 23 spots below his overall ADP. But this year is different. In re-draft, the durable Mahomes is still one of the safest bets around. And in dynasty, it's a perfect time to buy low on a quarterback with several years of realistic elite and/or near-elite production remaining.
I also urged managers to avoid Pacheco last summer. Actually, "avoid" doesn't accurately explain it. In August I wrote how he was coming off a 342-touch campaign (including the playoffs) after topping out at 182 in college. We didn't know yet if he could handle a full workload. As subscribers know, I ranked him 45 spots below his overall ADP. Today, his RB26 ADP is more appropriate for a guy who probably *shouldn't* exceed 225 regular-season touches. Hunt (RB55) and Elijah Mitchell (RB65) are both good gets, though Mitchell's injury history makes him a better stash in deep leagues than in, say, average-bench-size 12-team leagues.
And what about the receiving corps? Let's start with the elephant in the room -- or at least, one of the elephants. Kelce was another one of my summer 2024 fades. The market is still overvaluing him with a TE6 ADP. I discuss why in an FF4W podcast episode released yesterday. While he might look like a bargain, he's only a borderline top 8-10 talent at this stage. And Noah Gray is a slight bargain with pop.
Mahomes' WR corps should crush it as long as they're on the field. My only concern is the clutter. Rashee Rice (WR20 ADP) is priced right, and probably a little too low. Xavier Worthy (WR26) probably will frustrate managers with hit-or-miss production, but on balance should crack the top 30. I haven't trusted Marquise Brown (WR58) in about four years, and almost nothing suggests he'll be fantasy-relevant if everyone else is healthy.
That leaves Smith-Schuster (WR142) and fourth-round rookie Jalen Royals (WR76). While the gap should not be that big, I get it: If you're going to invest in a lottery ticket, Royals is more intriguing. Still, for Mahomes' sake (and many fantasy managers' sake), let's hope the Chiefs aren't forced to start both of them.