Five Biggest Questions:
1. Is James Cook a top-12 RB
2. Can Ray Davis carve out a bigger role?
3. Will Khalil Shakir continue to serve as the #1 WR?
4. Will Keon Coleman take another step forward?
5. Is Dalton Kincaid draftable?
I had expected Josh Allen to regress after losing his two top receivers last offseason. Didn't really happen. Yeah, he averaged his fewest fantasy points per contest since 2019. But he was still the QB2. Incredibly, he was elite despite averaging his fewest pass attempts since his 2018 rookie campaign. That's because he cut down on mistakes (career-low interception rate, career-low fumbles) while continuing to display his rushing prowess, particularly near the goal line.
At 29 years old, he might be two or three years away from the steep regression most dual-threat QBs have faced. Certainly keep on eye on his carries, because that's likely to decline. He averaged a career-low 6.0 per game in 2024 -- down from its 2022 peak of 7.8. This is where fantasy managers might feel the most pain. All other things being equal, shaving another 0.5 carries off his average would translate to about 0.5 fewer fantasy points per game unless he compensates with more production through the air. Doable, and also a dim yellow flag for a quarterback who earned one-third of his fantasy points on the ground.
Last summer I was down on James Cook, based in large part on historical data showing relatively short career spans for lightly used college RBs. Cook topped out at 113 carries as a senior -- nearly half of his total collegiate rushing attempts. I was firm in the belief that he would regress and rookie Ray Davis would exceed expectations. While Davis turned out to be a slight bargain, it didn't matter: Cook crushed it.
So why am I down on Cook again -- and more importantly, why should anyone listen this time around? I think Buffalo understands that James is not his older brother Dalvin, who transitioned from a college bell cow to a perennial NFL bell cow. James' per-game touches actually dropped last year, and perhaps not coincidentally, his playoff numbers far exceeded those from the year before.
I believe Buffalo will continue to keep Cook at about 15-17 touches a game, with Davis again filling in the gaps. And it's almost inconceivable that Cook can replicate his clip of one TD per 13 touches. A more "normal' eight touchdowns would have pushed him outside the top 20. As a result, I view his RB13 ADP as unrealistic, while Davis (RB41 ADP) is a bargain.
The Bills' WR corps seems like a "who knows?" situation. Last year, Khalil Shakir was their only wideout with 60+ targets, though in (slight) fairness, Keon Coleman was on pace for 75 if he'd played all 17 games. Without Stefon Diggs, this offense went from a balanced attack to RB-heavy. Shakir (WR42 ADP) caps the ascending Coleman's (WR49) ceiling, and vice versa, while the arrival of Joshua Palmer (WR72) might cap both.
In most circumstances, I want WRs who average 6+ targets. 49 wide receivers cleared that mark in 2024. In other words, it's fairly easy to draft four WRs with strong triple-digit-target potential. But none of the Bills have strong triple-digit potential. I'm fading Shakir and am neutral on Coleman and Palmer.
Dalton Kincaid is another pressure point for Shakir/Coleman/Palmer. The 2023 first-rounder took a step back last season, though knee injuries are a big reason why. Continued knee soreness this summer is a looming yellow flag. His TE14 ADP assumes a return to his rookie form. Assuming his health issue doesn't threaten his Week 1 availability, I'd be comfortable drafting Kincaid, because talent usually wins in the end.
---
Sign up for the Top 400 Preseason PPR Fantasy Rankings:
(Donate what it's worth to you)
(1) Venmo -- https://www.venmo.com/u/ff4winners
(2) Cash App -- https://cash.app/$ff4winners
(3) PayPal -- https://paypal.me/bjrudell?country.x=US&locale.x=en_US
Extra Advice ("Text Anytime," "RB Handcuffs," etc.): www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/ff4w-subscriptions.html
Podcast: Search "fantasy football for winners" on any popular podcast app