Five Biggest Questions:
1. How good will J.J. McCarthy be?
2. Should we trust the 30-year-old Aaron Jones?
3. Can Jordan Mason replicate his early-career production/efficiency?
4. Is Jordan Addison a worthwhile investment despite the suspension risks?
5. Can T.J. Hockenson return to near-elite form?
Quarterbacks seem to disproportionately end their careers with the Vikings, like Brett Favre in 2010 and Donovan McNabb in 2011. Warren Moon had his final "great" seasons in Minnesota at ages 38 and 39. The same goes for Randall Cunningham at age 35. Jim McMahon's final starting job was here in 1993; he then started only one more game (in Arizona) before retiring. Elite college QB Sam Bradford was a Vikes reclamation project in 2016 and 2017; he then started only three more games (again, in Arizona) before retiring. Another legendary college QB, Archie Manning, closed out his career in Minnesota in 1984.
Most of these guys were top-10 draft picks. Bradford went #1 overall, McNabb #2, Manning #2, and McMahon #5. In fact, the Vikings have started a lot of first-rounders in the past few decades, from draftees Tommy Kramer, Daunte Culpepper, Teddy Bridgewater, and Christian Ponder to free agent acquisitions Jeff George, Josh Freeman, and most recently Sam Darnold.
And now, the J.J. McCarthy era begins. He's the next in a long line of first-round QB investments. Several of his drafted predecessors entered the league with similar hype. As we know, nothing is assured, because teams whiff on supposedly elite QB draft picks almost as often as they hit.
But McCarthy's first full season is reminiscent of draft-class compatriot Caleb Williams' last year. As I discussed last summer, Williams entered the league with arguably the most talented collection of playmakers any rookie #1-overall-QB-pick has seen. McCarthy -- the #10 pick last spring -- is in a similar situation with one of the game's best wideouts, a terrific #2 WR, and a high-impact tight end. Add in a highly experienced lead RB with great hands, and this offense has the makings of a powerhouse.
Or the rookie quarterback could struggle, as so many rookies do -- even those who seem like "sure things." McCarthy's QB19 ADP is pretty common for talented rookies with unknown ceilings. Joe Burrow and Mac Jones had the same ranking as rookies. Trevor Lawrence's was QB16. The first year Patrick Mahomes took the reins, his ADP was QB15. Same with Lamar Jackson. Some of these guys dominated. One got knocked out midseason. Others played as expected or a little worse.
If you like high floors -- particularly in Superflex -- then McCarthy is a safe bet. No one's taking his job, and he has the surrounding playmakers to average 15+. The biggest question is whether he pushes for 18+.
On the ground, Aaron Jones' reps were managed for years in Green Bay. The move to Minnesota corresponded with a career-high 255 carries to go with 41 catches. His rushing efficiency dropped to a career-low 4.5 yards per carry. Still impressive, but not "Aaron-Jones" impressive. Four months shy of his 31st birthday, he's a bit too risky for me. I have Jones (RB25 ADP) only slightly ahead of undervalued free-agent-signee Jordan Mason (RB38).
The receiving corps is business as usual: Justin Jefferson (WR2 ADP) shouldn't miss a step despite catching passes from his third quarterback in three seasons (an unusual amount of QB turnover for an elite WR). Jordan Addison's WR36 ADP reflects the possibility of a suspension. I have him as a hold until we learn more. At the same time, he's solid get at that price point given his realistic top-24 per-game abilities. And the Vikes might have reached too soon for third-round rookie Tai Felton (WR137). So if Jalen Nailor remains (WR107) the #3, it'll only help solidify Addison's upside.
And T.J. Hockenson's TE ADP recently improved from 6 to 5. That actually makes me sad, because I'd had him as a small bargain. Now he's priced right. Ignore last year's TE17 ppg mark. He never had a chance, thanks in part to zero targets inside the opposing 10-yard line, compared to seven the year before and eight the year before that. It's an anomaly. Hockenson is one of the safest TEs around.
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