Five Biggest Questions:
1. Can we trust the aging Derrick Henry to post near-elite numbers?
2. Is Justice Hill a must-draft RB?
3. Is Zay Flowers a top-25 WR?
4. Will Rashod Bateman once again crack the top 50?
5. Can Isaiah Likely close the gap between himself and Mark Andrews?
Lamar Jackson is making a push for top-5 all-time quarterback. His 2024 campaign should have resulted in his third MVP award. It was arguably the most statistically dominant QB season . . . ever? Only the Eagles attempted fewer throws than the Ravens. Yet Jackson produced a 4,172-41-4 passing line. That alone would bring him close to Aaron Rodgers' historically efficient 2011 and 2020 numbers. But then you tack on Jackson's 915-4 rushing line, and he's a party of one. Four times in the last 10 seasons, a player has averaged 6.5 yards per carry or more. Jackson's done it three of those times. There is no one like him. Full stop.
To become Super Bowl champs, he'll need to stay healthy. The same goes for Derrick Henry, who will turn 32 in January. He's reached the "when, not if" phase of his career. Still extraordinary, and also coming off a 386-touch season (including the playoffs). His RB6 ADP brings mild risk. Collecting another 18 touchdowns seems like a stretch. I expect Justice Hill (RB59) to increase his touch count from 89 to at least 125. He's a must-get if you draft Henry and, frankly, a must-get at his current price point regardless.
Keaton Mitchell (RB76) and Rasheen Ali (RB115) are on the outside looking in, though a strong camp and some early looks could give Mitchell semi-relevance. He has college bell-cow experience and crushed it as a 2023 rookie.
On paper, Jackson has the best receiving corps of his career. Last summer I pushed Rashod Bateman as a bargain at his WR77 ADP and was openly torn about whether to buy into Zay Flowers' WR25 ADP or slightly fade him. Bateman ended up comfortably exceeding market expectations, while Flowers finished as the overall WR25. This summer, Bateman's at WR61 and Flowers is at WR26. Once again, I've got Bateman as a bargain and Flowers as a hold. Much hinges on whether DeAndre Hopkins (WR70) still has juice, and whether 2024 fourth-rounder Devontez Walker (WR144) can make strides after a mostly invisible rookie campaign.
And at tight end, how many managers dropped Mark Andrews by Week 4? A miserable September gave way to a near-elite 13.6 points per game the rest of the season. His TE7 ADP makes sense, as does Isaiah Likely's (TE17), whose foot injury reportedly shouldn't keep him out Week 1. My one caution about Andrews is that a relatively packed WR corps makes him more TD-dependent than ever. He thrived not on targets or yards, but on touchdowns: 11 in his final 12 outings. That's not sustainable.
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