And we're back. The 13th season of Fantasy Football for Winners. What began as a blog about fantasy football has grown into . . . a blog about fantasy football. No frills. No drama. Very few exclamation points. Just a bunch of people trying to win our league before AI wins it for us.
Tomorrow I'll re-launch the annual "32 Teams in 32 Days." This is as much for my benefit as (maybe) some of yours. I tune out almost everything during the offseason. So writing these daily rundowns forces me to research each fantasy-relevant player and (hopefully) have something useful to say about them.
As has been the case since 2013, I don't read other sites. I don't pull their analysis. This blog is built on accessing source material (Pro Football Reference has been my go-to for about a decade), updating spreadsheets filled with historical data, and identifying realistic floors and ceilings. Why was I so down on Christian McCaffrey last summer? Because based on historical data for players with 400+ touch seasons, he had a 92% chance of regressing -- and probably significantly (the average statistical decline hovered around 30%).
It's not always that cut-and-dry. Actually, those kinds of blaring warnings aren't common. But they can mean the difference between failure and success, as anyone who passed on CMC in favor of an elite WR knows.
Other stuff: my annual preseason rankings are live. They're contrarian when they need to be. Jordan Love was one of my biggest QB bargains in 2023, ranked 44 spots ahead of his ADP. He crushed it, finishing the season as the QB5 -- well ahead of his QB26 ADP. But last year I believed he was overvalued -- that the market had overcompensated for his terrific 2023. So I ranked him 18 spots *below* his ADP, urging subscribers to look elsewhere. He finished as the QB17, considerably worse than his QB9 ADP.
This is why I use these rankings to draft in my own league. The work that goes into creating and maintaining them gives me the confidence that I don't need to second-guess. There's a logic to each player at each spot, and when it comes to teammates, this logic is interconnected.
Finally, I'm bringing back a few in-season options for higher-stakes managers, like weekly RB handcuff rankings and text-anytime. This remains a free site. It'll always be a free site with daily content containing actionable intelligence. And if you want more of me, click one of the links below to sign up.
Looking forward to reconnecting with you all and talking fantasy these next six months.