Five Biggest Questions:
1. Will Trevor Lawrence ever break out?
2. Which RB will lead this backfield in fantasy scoring?
3. Can Brian Thomas replicate his monster numbers?
4. Is Travis Hunter no less than a weekly streamer?
5. Is Brenton Strange draftable?
One of my bigger whiffs these past couples has been Trevor Lawrence, thinking he was poised for a breakout. In 2023 he was only the QB17 in points per game. In 2024 he was only the QB23 in points per game (counting quarterbacks who played at least four games--so not including Joshua Dobbs, Marcus Mariota, etc.).
We might blame last season largely on personnel. The previously dominant Travis Etienne regressed sharply. Christian Kirk and Evan Engram each missed about half the year. Gabe Davis was a disaster. The two rookies -- Brian Thomas and the underutilized Tank Bigsby -- were the lone bright spots.
There are five reasons why I'm still uber-bullish about Lawrence. Why I'm confident that if you don't trade for him in dynasty before September, you'll miss out for good. Why I'm near-certain he will be the breakout I (we?) have been waiting for. #1, he's still only 25 years old. #2, rookie Travis Hunter. #3, based on last year's win-loss records, the Jags have the ninth-easiest schedule. Not only that: they'll face some of the worst defenses, including Tennessee twice, Indy twice, Cincy. Carolina, and Vegas. While some could justifiably argue that one or two of those D's might surprise, the reality is that Jacksonville is well-positioned to score more than the market thinks they will.
#4, if we toss out his one-quarter pre-concussion performance, he would have been the QB15 in points per game. So to be clear, the market sees him as 2024's QB23. Entirely fair. No judgment here. But . . . as bad/injured as he was, and as bad/injured several of his key playmakers were, he shouldn't be viewed as last year's QB23. #5, his ADP is QB20, which amazingly is down one spot from last week. For the price of a 1980's (pre-Starbucks) cup of coffee -- or the fantasy draft equivalent -- you can draft a pre-prime Trevor Lawrence ahead of a gift-wrapped season.
That sets the stage for the rest of the Jaguars. Last summer I drafted Kirk and the much cheaper Thomas as a hedge. Thanks to Thomas, it worked out. Should we be tempted to do the same with Thomas (steady WR8 ADP) and Hunter (WR30 ADP vs. WR33 last week)? It's a pretty top-heavy corps with Dyami Brown (WR74 vs. WR79 last week) serving as the #3 WR and Brenton Strange (TE20 vs. TE23 last week) probably not yet ready to fill the departed Engram's shoes. Of course, Brown is a decent Best Ball flier after finally showing consistency at the end of last season. But Thomas and Hunter realistically will combine for 225+ targets if they stay healthy.
Is there any good reason to draft both of them? Only if you understand the risks. According to my spreadsheet on teams' yearly fantasy outputs, there have been 24 instances since 2002 of a team producing two top-10 WRs -- most recently in 2022 by the Eagles (A.J. Brown / Devonta Smith) and the Dolphins (Tyreek Hill / Jaylen Waddle). So on average it's happened about once a year. We have about a 3% chance of guessing right if it does. And yet, a good chunk of teams don't have the QB + WR talent to realistically field two top-10 WRs. So generously, we might say we have maybe a 1-in-16 chance of guessing right (6%).
WR teammates posting top-20 numbers has happened on average three times a year since 2002. So the odds of it happening this year is about 10%. The odds of us guessing right might be (let's say) 15%-18% based on team-by-team talent. So I can't justify drafting both unless Hunter's value drop considerably -- which probably won't happen.
Finally, the Etienne-Bigsby battle will be joined by fourth-round rookie Bhayshul Tuten. I'm generally not a fan of guessing among three capable RB teammates. And even seventh-round rookie LeQuint Allen (probably a steal of a pick) can't be entirely overlooked, particularly in dynasty. In these situations, I look at who's valued where. Etienne (RB33 ADP vs. RB35 last week), Tuten (a steady RB43), and Bigsby (RB49 vs. RB45 last week). In a 12-team league, they're going off the board (respectively) in the ninth, 11th, and 12th rounds.
But if you're intrigued (and admittedly I'm a little intrigued), there's a psychology to drafting these guys. If these values hold, and if you get Etienne in the ninth, I would pounce on Tuten in the 10th. Or if you really want them, I'd go eighth (Etienne), then ninth (Tuten). The odds of an opponent over-reaching for Bigsby with the other two off the board is slim. Who wants to roll the dice on one member of a currently three-headed backfield? So getting Etienne and Tuten should buy you time -- at least a couple rounds -- to get Bigsby at or even a little after his ADP.
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