Five Biggest Questions:
1. Is Caleb Williams poised for a breakout?
2. Can D'Andre Swift continue to post top-24 numbers?
3. Is D.J. Moore still the alpha WR?
4. Will Rome Odunze take another step forward?
5. Will rookies Luther Burden III and/or Colston Loveland be fantasy streamers?
I touched on Caleb Williams last week while talking about Cam Ward. #1 overall QB picks often don't come close to meeting expectations. Williams has a good shot a taking a step forward in Year 2. He frequently looked like a rookie last season, but he also showed star potential. His QB12 ADP (down one spot from last week) assumes more of the latter. He finished last year as the QB16. He should improve.
Because as offensively stacked as this team was when Williams arrived, this year it might be even more stacked. Chicago used their first two picks on a top-flight TE and a promising WR. They're giving their franchise QB the best chance to develop and thrive. This is why he *should* improve.
It's almost always hard to envision a middling fantasy QB ascending to stardom. Rapid ascent is rare. If Williams take a big step forward, he will probably be a top-5 quarterback. That's not as much the case for someone like Bryce Young, who doesn't have nearly the same caliber of playmakers at his disposal. Rapid ascent is reserved for those who (a) are talented, and (b) have what the Bears have.
The biggest yellow flags are Williams' propensity (thus far) to hold onto the ball for too long. There's blame to go around, including a sub-par offensive line. But that's the point: there's no apparent single reason. Chicago re-tooled their o-line, and Williams can't afford to lead the league (again) in sacks. He also needs to get in sync with two rookie receivers who should see a lot of targets. There will be rough spots. On the whole, though, there are a lot more reasons for optimism. I'd definitely draft Williams at his price point.
Through the air, D.J. Moore (WR20 ADP vs. WR21 last week) managed to post top-20 fantasy numbers in 2024. But that's a bit deceptive, as he was the WR29 in points per game. In addition to sharing the stage with the most "good" receivers of his career, his usage changed dramatically. His average yards before the catch since 2018 had been 6.7, 9.1, 12.3, 7.9, 11.2, and 8.6. He was essentially a downfield threat.
But last year he averaged only 3.9 yards before the catch. So yes, he enjoyed the most receptions of his career. But the quality of those receptions was diminished.
The Bears already have too many receiver wild cards. Moore's usage is one more potential headache. Rookies Luther Burden III (WR57 ADP vs. WR52 last week) and Colston Loveland (TE12 vs. TE18 last week) are breakout candidates. So is last year's #9 overall pick, Rome Odunze (WR34 vs. WR39 last week). A dominant Williams could help make three or even all four of them fantasy useful. A merely slightly improved Williams might consistently feed only two of them.
This is why we do this, right? It's the not knowing that keeps things interesting. For now, I have Moore and Loveland as slight fades, Odunze as a hold, and Burden as a growing bargain with the most room to pop.
And in the backfield, it took a few weeks for D'Andre Swift to get going. Eventually he delivered. Chicago didn't shake things up too much: Swift (holding steady with a RB23 ADP) will continue leading the way, and the enigmatic Roschon Johnson (RB52 compared to RB55 last week) will back him up. Seventh-round rookie Kyle Monangai (down one spot to RB69) appears to be only a depth piece.
Keep an eye on Johnson in August. Although he regressed last year, the former fourth-rounder is one Swift injury away from being a near-must-start, especially in what could be an explosive offense. Note that Swift topped out at 196 carries in college. He's picked up 229 and 253 carries in his last two seasons, and his efficiency has nose-dived. It's enough for me to push Swift down my rankings a bit, and to push Johnson up.
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