Five Biggest Questions:
1. Can Geno Smith pick up where he left off in Seattle?
2. Will Ashton Jeanty be a high-volume bell cow out of the gate?
3. Is Jakobi Meyers a weekly streamer?
4. Are any other WRs draftable?
5. Is Brock Bowers on the verge of Travis-Kelce-like dominance?
In the past 60 years, the Raiders have drafted five running backs in the first round: Marcus Allen in 1982, Napoleon Kaufman 13 years later, Darren McFadden 13 years after that, Josh Jacobs 11 years after that . . . and now Ashton Jeanty.
This year's #6 overall pick is supposed to be a fantasy game-changer. The good news is that he's joining a team that--at least on paper--should be good enough to keep drives going. Geno Smith should help stabilize a passing attack that, since Derek Carr's departure two years ago, has bounced between Aidan O'Connell, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Gardner Minshew while offering one start to both Brian Hoyer and Desmond Ridder. Again, "should be good enough" is the key.
But Vegas didn't stop there. They also drafted wideouts Jack Bech in the second round and Dont'e Thornton Jr. in the fourth. Along with Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers, and Michael Mayer, there's enough here to produce the most offensive yards in franchise history (beating their 2002 mark--the last time they reached the Super Bowl).
For this team to meet or even exceed its realistic offensive potential, Jeanty (RB5 ADP) will need be the spark. Unless he breaks down, we should expect 280+ touches and 1,500+ yards. We'll probably know by around Week 3 whether those estimates are conservative.
The one catch (there's always a catch) is not the presence of 33-year-old Raheem Mostert (RB70 ADP), who likely won't make it through the season. The one thing fantasy managers should keep in mind is that Jeanty totaled 397 touches last season at Boise State, which included 374 carries. Based on my spreadsheet that covers all college RB usage since the start of this century, no first-round pick has ever had that many touches in any college season.
Among early-round RBs in this group, most were eased into the league. For example, Steven Jackson, Le'Veon Bell, and Derrick Henry posted only 153, 140, and 123 rookie touches, respectively. All three had between 394 and 412 touches in their final collegiate campaign. Their teams didn't need them to do it all. But the Raiders kind of need Jeanty to do it all, and more.
Back to Geno: his QB26 ADP isn't unusual. Each summer there are about 10-12 QBs ranked outside the top 14 that could reasonably be contenders for top-14 production. The problem with rankings is that there are no ties. But if there could be, I would put Geno into a tie with several top 18-to-25 QBs. Superflexers would be better off waiting on Geno than arbitrarily taking, say, Matthew Stafford (QB21 ADP) a round earlier.
I currently have no idea what to make of Vegas's receivers (aside from Bowers with a TE1 ADP), and apparently the market is a little confused, too. There's only one WR inside the top 70 and only two inside the top 100. If Geno throws for "only" 3,500 yards (his lowest output since becoming a full-time starter in 2022), then I'm counting about 2,500 combined for Jeanty, Bowers, and Meyers if things break right. In that scenario, no other receiver would be draftable. But if we assume Geno will help elevate this offense, then Bech (WR68 ADP) and even the skyrocketing Thornton (WR78, up from WR118 last week) are worth monitoring closely in camp.
That leaves Meyers (WR40 ADP) as a seemingly safe weekly streamer with a little pop, with the potential ascension of 2023 third-rounder Tre Tucker (WR103 ADP). Things should get clearer in about five weeks.
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