Five Biggest Questions:
1. Can Bryce Young build off of his recent late-season heroics?
2. Is Chuba Hubbard a safe top-20 RB?
3. Can Rico Dowdle carve out a deep-league streamer role?
4. Will rookie Tetairoa McMillan be the clear-cut #1 WR?
5. Does Adam Thielen have enough left in the tank to be relevant?
If Bryce Young hadn't closed out last season like a rock star--11 touchdowns and zero turnovers in three games, including two overtime wins--Carolina almost assuredly would've, at minimum, signed a veteran QB in March. Instead, the 2023 overall #1 pick probably now has about half a season to prove he's "the guy."
I view Young as a little-to-lose Superflex snag at his stable QB23 ADP. Seemingly "lesser" quarterbacks have shaken off early-career struggles and found their form in Year 3 or 4. In a realistic worst-case scenario, he labors into October and gives way to someone like Andy Dalton. In a *more* realistic scenario, he grows into a mid-range starting QB. And there's a small-but-tangible chance that his last three games are a sign of things to come. Again, little to lose.
It helps that the Panthers invested in yet another top-flight WR in the draft--the third consecutive year they've used a top-40 pick on a wideout. Tetairoa McMillan came off the board at #8, and he'll mix in with Xavier Legette, the surprising Jalen Coker, the ageless Adam Thielen, and potentially ascending TE Ja'Tavion Sanders. On paper, this is somewhere between a marginally better and a meaningfully better unit than last year's.
Will the rookie McMillan immediately become the alpha? Clearly too soon to know. Two summers ago, Adam Thielen's WR ADP was 50. Hunter Renfrow was the team's next-best fantasy wideout at WR71. Thielen finished that year as the overall WR17. Renfrow wilted and didn't even play last season. The point is, when you have a still-chugging 34-year-old like Thielen lining up with a bunch of young talents, anything can happen.
When I wrote this piece a week ago, McMillan's ADP was WR33. In that earlier draft, I wrote that "I'd like his value to dip these next few weeks." But the opposite has happened: McMillan's ADP is now WR21 -- too steep for me at this point. His rise has coincided with Thielen's drop from WR59 to WR67. On a points-per-game basis, he should comfortably outperform expectations. Legette (WR65) is a true wild card, because assuming he's no more than the #2 WR, he'll need a high-functioning Young to help propel him into the top 50. And the ceiling-capped Coker (WR84, down from WR70 last week) could play an occasional spoiler role.
At tight end, I like investing in Sanders at his TE29 ADP. The starting job is his for the taking. As with most non-top-20 TEs, most managers won't care. But his four best performances last year came when Tommy Tremble was sidelined. In those contests, Sanders racked up 9.9, 12.1, 12.7, and 8.8 fantasy points. Those are top-12 fantasy numbers. While he's a huge longshot to sustain that production this year, his ADP seems way off.
Finally, if there were an MVP award for players on pretty bad teams, Chuba Hubbard would've gotten my vote in 2024. Despite injuries to key players, uncertainty at QB, and frequently negative game scripts, the 25-year-old crushed it. This year he'll face fresh competition from recent 1,000-yard rusher Rico Dowdle. Rookie Trevor Etienne might mix in. The injury-plagued Jonathon Brooks remains a stash-and-hope.
While I want to believe Hubbard can hit his RB17 ADP, Carolina recently handed him a four-year extension. They're invested in him at least for the next 2-3 years, timed with a potentially widening playoff window. But this year they're still rebuilding. Giving him another 300 touches seems unlikely. Interestingly, Dowdle's ADP is in free-fall -- from RB44 last week to RB55 today. In my initial draft, I wrote, "While I wouldn't buy on a Hubbard dip, I *would* buy on a Dowdle dip. Well, there's the dip. With only Etienne (RB83) standing in his way, Dowdle is a must-draft handcuff.
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