Five Biggest Questions:
1. Is Tyler Shough the answer for New Orleans?
2. Can Alvin Kamara continue to post big numbers?
3. Will a healthy Chris Olave bounce back?
4. Can Rashid Shaheed finish in the top 50?
5. Are any other playmakers draftable?
Last season, the Saints scored only 338 points--their second-lowest output since 2006, the year they signed Drew Brees. But it wouldn't be fair to say their offense was anemic. In the 10 games Derek Carr started, they averaged a robust 24.5 points per game. Only 10 teams averaged more; all 10 reached the playoffs. A healthy Carr might have delivered.
Their "what-if" season got off to a blistering 2-0 start. Had their defense stopped the eventual champion Eagles on 3rd-and-16 with barely a minute left, they probably would have gone to 3-0. And then, had Atlanta's Younghoe Koo missed a last-season 58-yard field goal attempt, they would have started 4-0. , Instead, an injured Carr gave way to Spencer Rattler and, just as painfully, Jake Haener. With those two (and primarily Rattler) at the helm, New Orleans netted only 13.3 points per game. Fantasy managers shook their heads and cried (or bravely held back tears).
Carr's sudden retirement two months ago kicked this franchise's long-awaited rebuild into overdrive. Of course, drafting a soon-to-be 26-year-old QB in the second round isn't normally part of a "rebuild." But assuming he wins the starting job, Tyler Shough should beat his QB33 ADP--and not just if he plays every game. Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave will elevate him, supported by Rashid Shaheed and Juwan Johnson. It's a capable unit for an untested QB.
And Kamara (RB17 ADP) probably is the biggest key. He might have one "great" year remaining. Although not nearly as efficient as he once was, the 29-year-old obviously still has elite pass-catching potential. Also keep an eye on rookie Devin Neal (RB71 ADP). The sixth-rounder is competing against Kendre Miller (RB80) and Cam Akers (RB92) for a handcuff role. The often-injured Miller hasn't found his footing. In some ways the #2 job is Miller's to lose. But one could argue it's Neal's to lose. One of these two might spike in value by August.
The Saints' high-producing fantasy WR last season was Marquez Valdes-Scantling. That's what happens when your #1 WR misses nine games and your #2 WR misses 11. MVS ranked 89th in total scoring. I've been tracking this kind of stuff since 2002. MVS's ranking was the worst performance by a team's top-producing WR in at least 23 years. It was a fluke caused by major injuries to too many starters. Barring another fluky rash of injuries. the Saints should have at least one WR in the top 40. Of course, Olave has the best chance, and when I started writing this piece a week ago, his ADP was WR26, which I described as "a little too ambitious." Now it's WR35, which is good news for managers who (like me) enjoy targeting teams' #1 WRs.
Rounding out the receiving corps are Shaheed (WR54 ADP), Brandin Cooks (WR123), and Bub Means (WR151). Cooks' positional ADP has dropped 42 points in the past week; that's not uncommon at this time of year, when managers are more intrigued with untested rookies rather than post-prime journeymen. Then there's Taysom Hill (TE41 ADP), who will turn 35 before he retakes the field. The spot contributor might not be fully healthy until well into the season. My sit/start predictions around Hill are probably no more than 20% accurate these last few years, so be warned if you have a question about Hill: I can't figure out when he'll bust out and when he'll tank.
Finally, Juwan Johnson's career-high 66 targets was due largely to New Orleans' decimated receiving corps. Secondary and tertiary options were forced to step up. While he probably won't reach that number this year, his current TE28 ADP (up from TE30 last week) suggests a basement-level floor. He could be a terrific safety valve, making him a worthwhile get in Best Ball.
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