Five Biggest Questions:
1. Who will earn the most QB starts, and will it matter?
2. Can Quinshon Judkins be a weekly fantasy RB starter?
3. Will Jerome Ford and/or Dylan Sampson make fantasy noise?
4. Is Jerry Jeudy a top-35 WR?
5. Will David Njoku finish in the top 10?
My June 11, 2022 rundown of Cleveland players' fantasy outlooks--my first comments about Deshaun Watson since the franchise mortgaged part of their future to secure him--was this:
"The most likely scenario, I believe, is that the Browns will be a partially broken team when this is all over."
Still shy of his 30th birthday, Watson has looked "finished" for a while. The Browns couldn't cut him this offseason because it would've cost them $167 million in dead cap. Dumping him next offseason would mean a little over $130 million dead cap hit. In two years they can decide whether to absorb a roughly $50 million hit. They probably can't trade him, and they'll probably never play him, even after recovering from a torn Achilles. So he'll enter this season as the most expensive fourth-string quarterback in history, and probably the most expensive for the rest of the century.
So I was wrong: this isn't a partially broken team. It's decimated. Improving on last year's 3-14 record might be a stretch. Only the Saints have worse Super Bowl odds. The Watson trade set this franchise back at least five years, and that might be generous.
There are no "safe" fantasy options here. The QB job will fall to Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, third-round rookie Dillon Gabriel, or fifth-round rookie Shedeur Sanders. Realistically, three or more of these guys might earn at least one start this season, which is becoming par for the course (four Cleveland QBs earned at least one start last year, and five earned at least one start the year before).
The market slightly favors Flacco (QB34 ADP). Interestingly, Gabriel is fourth on the list with a QB44 ADP. (Watson is fifth at QB48.) For a team going nowhere, it would make no sense for the 40-year-old Flacco to carry the load all or even most of the season. But deciding who to pick in Superflex or even Best Ball seems like a wasted effort.
And in general, I avoid RBs in anemic offenses because of the strong potential for shorter drives and fewer scoring opportunities. Exceptions are reserved for do-it-all running backs who can give managers a good volume-based floor. Second-round rookie Quinshon Judkins might be the right fit. The third RB taken in April's draft, Judkins will need to adjust from playing on a championship squad with a relatively strong offensive line . . . to playing for the Browns, running behind a sub-par o-line. Weak quarterback play presumably will embolden defenses to attack the line, and negative game scripts almost assuredly will mess with Judkins' usage.
Competing for touches will be fourth-round rookie Dylan Sampson and Jerome Ford. All three backs are capable through the air. All three are (or appear to be) NFL-starter talents. Unless Judkins is the clear-cut 1A out of camp, his RB28 ADP would be overly optimistic. While I'm not excited to land Ford even a round or two after his RB52 ADP, I would happily snag Sampson (RB63 ADP) as a nothing-to-lose stash--at least until the backfield pecking order shakes out.
At wideout, the old adage that "someone has to catch it" doesn't work if you don't have a QB to throw it. Jerry Jeudy has the best overall ADP for the Browns, with a positional mark of WR31. To some, he might seem like a buy. After all, he was the WR24 in points per game last year. But that would ignore the fact that his pairing with Jameis Winston made all the difference. In Week 11, Winston threw 46 times for 395 yards; Jeudy posted a 6-142-1 line. Two weeks later, Winston threw 58 times for 497 yards; Jeudy finished with 9-235-1.
We can't talk about Jeudy and not state the obvious: Jeudy averaged 21.0 points per game with Winston under center. He averaged 9.0 with everyone else. Winston is now with the Giants. Jeudy would need a miracle to meet market expectations. I'm firmly passing on him, am lukewarm about Cedric Tillman (WR55 ADP), and am not thinking at all about Diontae Johnson (WR89 ADP) or any other Cleveland WR.
Finally, the perennially capable David Njoku has nowhere to go but down. His TE8 ADP assumes continued success in a bottom-tier offense. Third-round rookie Harold Fannin Jr. (TE34 ADP) was drafted to eventually replace Njoku, who the Browns can reasonably cut after the 2026 season. We might see Fannin gradually gain traction as the year wears on. That doesn't mean Njoku can't be a top-16 TE. But I think his TE8 designation is his ultimate ceiling, and that's too bullish for me.
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