Five Biggest Questions:
1. Can Jordan Love return to the top 14?
2. Is Josh Jacobs a relatively safe top-10 RB?
3. Will rookie Matthew Golden operate as the #1 WR?
4. Can Jayden Reed remain a weekly fantasy starter?
5. Is Tucker Kraft a top-12 TE?
Jordan Love is the poster child for misguided market valuations. Two summers ago I wrote why his QB26 ADP was simply insane. My 32-in-32 Packers rundown began with "I'm a Jordan Love true believer." The "why" was key. I won't rehash it here, but it was one of those cases where logic superseded the herd mentality.
Then last summer the market over-corrected, tagging him as the QB9. But as readers -- and especially my rankings subscribers knew -- he was a sharp fade in drafts. There were too many top-10-caliber quarterbacks with arguably higher upsides. He finished the year as the overall QB15 and as the QB17 in points per game.
Now in Year 3, the market has finally (seemingly) figured it out. Love's QB17 ADP makes sense for a guy who's good enough to be a consistent top-20 option, great enough to crack the top 12 if things break right, and also mistake-prone enough to cap his ceiling. Those looking to draft him would benefit if his ADP drops a little further, though I don't see him falling below 19.
His wideouts are, as usual, talented and deep. So where does that leave managers? Maybe even more confused than last year, when Jayden Reed was the one trustworthy fantasy WR. Dontayvion had only two games with 12+ points. Christian Watson surpassed that threshold three times. Romeo Doubs did it four times. All four guys are back. So are TEs Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave. Remember, Musgrave was a 2023 second-round pick. He was a starter until Thanksgiving 2023, when he missed the first of six games. Kraft caught a touchdown pass that day and has never looked back. But Musgrave has the skills to be relevant.
That's six capable receivers (or five until Watson is healthy) . . . joining rookie first-rounder Matthew Golden. And this is why all five WR ADPs are outside the top 40. Kraft is sitting at TE13. I've got all seven players near their market values. In 12-team leagues, based on overall ADPs, Golden's falling to the seventh or eighth round, while Reed's generally available in the eighth or ninth. Given their big-play ability, I understand the appeal. That said, I wouldn't reach any earlier.
The backfield's outlook shifted when Marshawn Lloyd suffered a non-contact injury in practice. As of last night, there's no word on the severity, though some early reports suggest it's not significant. If he's forced to miss time, Emanuel Wilson (RB109 ADP) would pop, with Chris Brooks (RB161) waiting in the wings unless the Packers sign someone even semi-notable. Lloyd's injury -- again, if serious -- would also solidify Josh Jacobs' (RB8) floor. Lloyd is a former third-round pick with fantastic pass-catching abilities. The gap between Jacobs and "optimal" Lloyd is narrower than Jacobs and "optimal" Wilson.
So this is a fascinating fantasy situation, where a healthy Jacobs would be the safest bet by a mile. We know what we're getting with Love. And everyone else -- from Golden to Reed to Kraft -- would be "draft and hope" options in an offense that should be solid, but which doesn't have a clear go-to receiver.
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