Five Biggest Questions:
1. Can Bo Nix replicate or even improve on his impressive rookie campaign?
2. Will rookie RJ Harvey be a weekly fantasy starter?
3. Can we trust in JK Dobbins' durability?
4. Beyond Courtland Sutton, are any WRs draftable?
5. Will Evan Engram crack the top 10?
The Broncos' most recent Super Bowl title was 10 seasons ago, in what was Peyton Manning's final campaign. Since then, in the face of seven consecutive losing seasons, they put their hopes into a number of "franchise" quarterbacks, from 2016 first-rounder Paxton Lynch to 2019 second-rounder Drew Lock to future Hall-of-Famer Russell Wilson. None of them panned out. Nor did Trevor Siemian, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, Brandon Allen, Jeff Driskel, Brett Rypien, Teddy Bridgewater, and Jarrett Stidham.
In last year's draft, Denver had to watch opponents select the five "best" QBs before it reached them at #12. They ended this run on quarterbacks by snagging Bo Nix. The next quarterback taken was Spencer Rattler in the fifth round. In other words, the Broncos came oh-so-close to missing out and waiting perhaps several more years before finding their next franchise QB.
Now consider the obstacles this team faced to reach double-digit wins for the first time in nine years. In addition to having a rookie quarterback, former co-#1 WR Jerry Jeudy was now in Cleveland. Beyond Courtland Sutton, they had a mostly untested second-year pro Marvin Mims (22 career catches), journeyman Lil'Jordan Humphrey (31 career catches), fourth-round rookie Troy Franklin, and seventh-round rookie Devaughn Vele. Uber-journeyman Josh Reynolds stepped up the first two weeks, struggled the next three, got hurt on the field, was wounded in a shooting, and then was waived midseason.
Then layer on a spotty backfield featuring Javonte Williams, who hasn't looked remotely the same since his ACL/LCL/PLC tears, Jaleel McLaughlin, who regressed to just north of middling after an impressive rookie campaign, and truly middling fifth-round rookie Audric Estime. The tight end corps? 2022 third-rounder Greg Dulcich was mercifully waived in November, giving way to a hodgepodge of overachieving mid-20-something TEs.
Denver started 0-2, with Nix managing only 384 passing yards on 77 throws while netting zero TD passes and four interceptions. But then things turned around. He started clicking more with his receivers. His running game proved pretty effective. He somehow managed 19.9 fantasy points per game starting in Week 3, finishing as the QB8. This was arguably one of the most impressive rookie QB seasons in decades, and when we factor in the adversity this team faced, it was downright incredible.
Not surprisingly, Nix's ADP is . . . QB8. (Yet another reason why it's often easy to predict preseason ADPs months before they first appear.) If we marvel at all that he and the Broncos achieved in what initially looked like a partial rebuilding year, his market value makes sense. And this entire write-up so far is *supposed* to lead us to this conclusion. How could we not get excited about the next phase in his development?
And that's the point. Emotionally, it's easy to say, "Wow." But feel-good stories don't always lead to feel-good fantasy seasons, and when we detach and assess the most realistic range of outcomes, I believe he's in the QB7-14 range. While this is a talented corps, last year the team leaned heavily on Nix. 55.3% of their offensive plays were pass attempts, which was in the top half of the league. 71.4% of their offensive TDs came through the air -- the sixth-most in the league. They averaged only 4.1 yards per carry -- tied for seventh-lowest in the league.
And maybe most notably, they had only 17 RB carries inside the opposing 10-yard line. That was less than nearly every other team's backfield. For context, 22 individual RBs had more than 17 carries inside the opposing 10. Yes, 22 RBs had more of those rushing attempts than all Denver RBs combined.
Denver's backfield should be much better this season with second-round rookie RJ Harvey atop the depth chart, backed by the excellent (when healthy) JK Dobbins. This should take some of the weight off Nix's shoulders. He'll probably remain very good, and some games he'll probably be great statistically. But more likely than not, a more balanced offensive attack will cap his ceiling.
Rolling through ADPs, Harvey (RB23) and Dobbins (RB41) are priced about right at this stage. I have Harvey as a slight buy and Dobbins as a slight fade, though the next 2-3 weeks will sort that out. The rookie has the skillset to be a long-term bell cow. Well, maybe not "long term," because he'll turn 25 before the next Super Bowl. And McLaughlin (RB70) is a worthwhile deep-league dart throw given Dobbins' injury history. Estime (RB79) is, for now, merely a depth piece.
The wideout corps is currently beyond my comprehension. Sutton (WR23 ADP) is of course comfortably ahead of Mims (WR57), third-round rookie Pat Bryant (WR84), Franklin (WR92), and Vele (WR136). All five of them (yes, all five) are fades on my draft board. Not big fades, but enough to make me not want to draft them. Too much youth, too much volatility.
And the offseason addition of Evan Engram (TE8) -- combined with the upgraded backfield -- means that what happened last year should not overly influence what we think will happen this year. Engram, Harvey, and Dobbins (when available) are clear positional upgrades. If Denver had a clear one-two punch at wideout, we might view this differently. But there's too much chaos -- too many capable hands -- to trust any WR at his ADP.
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