Five Biggest Questions:
1. Was Sam Darnold's 2024 breakout a fluke?
2. Will Kenneth Walker finish in the top 16?
3. Can Zach Charbonnet become a weekly streamer?
4. Is Jaxon Smith-Njigba a top-12 WR?
5. Can Cooper Kupp finish in the top 32?
Last summer, I went all in on Sam Darnold, writing on July 14th that he "might be the best QB bust of the past decade." Then on August 15th, with J.J. McCarthy out for the season, I devoted an entire column to why Darnold was one of fantasy's most undervalued quarterbacks, and why he was my QB19 despite an ADP in the low-30's and (eventually) high 20's:
"The beauty of Darnold's situation is that for the first time in four or five years, he doesn't have to look over his shoulder. He has the playmakers and the time (one full season) to prove he belongs atop the depth chart -- if not in Minnesota (when McCarthy is ready), then at least somewhere."
This was a "Why doesn't the market understand this?" moment. And after he finished the year as the QB9, the market shouldn't need any more evidence. But his ADP is currently QB28 -- one spot lower than where it was entering Week 1 last season. Is there concern that Drew Lock or rookie Jalen Milroe could supplant Darnold atop the depth chart? Seattle just handed Darnold $55 million guaranteed, and it wasn't to be a backup. I expect him to start every game as long as he's healthy, making him a strong bargain for the second consecutive summer.
The impact Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison had on Darnold -- and vice versa -- should play out similarly with Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR14 ADP vs. WR16 last week) and Cooper Kupp (WR39 vs. WR42 last week). JSN is a solid get at his current price point, and Kupp is a little-to-lose investment in a passing attack without a strong #3 WR and, with Noah Fant now gone, a questionably effective TE corps. If you believe as I do that Darnold will be better than expected, then there's room for Njigba and Kupp to pop.
Elsewhere, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR98 ADP vs. WR99) will compete with fifth-round rookie Tory Horton (WR108 vs. WR110) and perhaps either longshot seventh-round rookie Cody White (WR193 vs. WR207) or Jake Bobo (a steady WR113). I prefer Horton over the nearly 31-year-old MVS. And second-round rookie Elijah Arroyo (TE29 ADP vs. TE31 last week) will battle for targets with 2024 fourth-rounder A.J. Barner (TE42 vs. TE39). After the first two preseason games, we'll probably know the Week 1 starter, and seemingly it's Arroyo's to lose.
Finally, the backfield is not as cut-and-dry as average draft positions suggest. Kenneth Walker (RB16 ADP vs. RB15 last week) has a sharp edge over Zach Charbonnet (stable at RB39), who in six starts last year collected 433 yards and six TDs on 91 carries (4.8 YPC), along with 19 catches for 169 yards. The latter *looked* like the bell cow this franchise drafted in 2022's second round. I don't like how wide their ADP gap is. Charbonnet is no longer a handcuff; he's capable enough to push for a true 1B role.
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