Five Biggest Questions:
1. Will Aaron Rodgers achieve consistent Superflex relevance?
2. Can rookie Kaleb Johnson push ahead and stay ahead of Jaylen Warren?
3. Is DK Metcalf a top-20 WR?
4. Will Calvin Austin III and/or Roman Wilson finish in the top 50?
5. Could Jonnu Smith or Pat Freiermuth finish in the top 12?
Pittsburgh hasn't had a losing record since 2003. But in recent years, drafting their players in fantasy probably has contributed to many losing records.
The Steelers haven't had a top-12 QB since 2018. They've enjoyed only one top-12 RB and one top-14 WR since 2019. Three top-12 TEs since 2018 seem okay until we understand that none of those three averaged double-digit points.
A team's recent history isn't necessarily an indicator of future outcomes, and it's notable that this franchise has swapped out its #1 QB, #1 RB, and #1 WR. But it's equally notable that the man at the helm is a longshot to recapture anything close to his former glory. Signing the aged Aaron Rodgers was the ultimate desperation move, unless this team believes it's one decent quarterback away from Super Bowl contention.
They probably need a lot more, and unfortunately for them and for fantasy managers, Pittsburgh was content and/or resigned to patch together a somewhat competitive team ahead of a more concerted pursuit for a franchise-elevating QB in 2026. Rodgers' QB29 ADP tells the whole story, and then some. He'll turn 42 in December. There's a pretty sizable chance that Mason Rudolph or even sixth-round rookie Will Howard will collect some spot starts.
So where does this leave the receiving corps? DK Metcalf might've been better off competing for targets with Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Seattle. Last year, Rodgers' top target (Garrett Wilson) was the WR21 in points per game. So naturally Metcalf's ADP is WR22. I think 20-28 is realistic, making him a slight fade.
The tougher call might be Pittsburgh's #2 WR. Calvin Austin III (WR77 ADP vs. WR72 last week) or Roman Wilson (WR89 vs. WR80) *should* do better than expected. Although Wilson has the higher ceiling, Austin currently is the #2. Then again, will it matter? And Robert Woods (WR131 vs. WR128) hasn't been relevant across a full season in five years, while Ben Skowronek (WR163 vs. WR181) and Scotty Miller (WR205 vs. WR201) have *never* been relevant across a full season. Skowronek's recent jump is meaningless when you consider his overall ADP is just shy of 500. Oh, and there's rookie Montana Lemonious-Craig (WR198). Again, none of this is inspiring.
The recent addition of Jonnu Smith muddies things in a lukewarm passing attack that cannot afford more muddying. The nearly 30-year-old is coming off a career year on a career-high 111 targets. So naturally, the market favors him (a steady TE13 ADP) over Pat Freiermuth (down one spot to TE22). I'm not buying it. Smith had the fourth-most TE targets inside the opposing 10-yard line, converting his 10 looks into six touchdowns. There's nothing normal about that; it cannot be easily replicated.
The backfield offers more fantasy hopefulness, with third-round rookie Kaleb Johnson (RB25 ADP) competing with Jaylen Warren (RB31). Neither ADPs have moved in a while. Warren has been fascinating since signing with the Steelers as a UDFA in 2022, frequently going toe-to-toe with longtime presumptive bell cow Najee Harris. Terrible for fantasy managers and great for a player who clearly exceeded expectations. Can he keep it going? The market seems to think so. I actually think the ADP gap should be wider. While Warren might be the 1B or even the 1A out of the gate, it's only a matter of time before Johnson asserts himself as the team's primary running back, which should push him into the top 20 starting around October.
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