Five Biggest Questions:
1. Can Matthew Stafford be fantasy-relevant?
2. Is Kyren Williams a top-10 RB?
3. Are Blake Corum and/or Jarquez Hunter draftable?
4. Can Puka Nacua maintain elite production?
5. Is Davante Adams a top-14 WR?
Yesterday I mentioned that in 2024, Houston's C.J. Stroud had the NFL's lowest 17-game QB-fantasy-point average (13.0) in three years. Matthew Stafford wasn't much better, netting 13.4 points per game across 16 contests. Of course, losing Cooper Kupp for five games and Puka Nacua for six was a big factor. Stafford averaged only 8.7 fantasy points in the five contests they missed together. In the extra game Nacua missed, Stafford collected only 6.6 points.
In all other games, the 37-year-old quarterback averaged 16.5. Not great, and also not terrible. His QB22 ADP (down from QB21 last week) is neither exciting nor unrealistic. At this stage of his career, he might top out around 16-18, and he could descend into the mid-to-high 20's. Even in Superflex leagues, I'd rather roll the dice on several higher-upside guys outside the top 24.
Kyren Williams (RB12 ADP) makes me nervous for entirely different reasons. I drafted him last year and loved his volume and touchdowns. But he'll face a different level of backfield competition this year, led by 2024 third-rounder Blake Corum (up one spot this week to RB62) and rookie fourth-rounder Jarquez Hunter (RB70). Corum and Hunter have college bell cow experience. Neither was drafted to simply ride the pine for four years.
So the question is how much the Rams want to lean on Williams, who's coming off 389-touch campaign (including the playoffs). I'm fading Williams a bit and leaning slightly into Corum and Hunter at their price points. Once things clear up in August, we'll know whether Corum or Hunter (or both) are must-draft RBs.
Through the air, this franchise has replaced the 32-year-old Kupp with the slightly older 32-year-old Davante Adams (WR15 ADP). Paired with Nacua (WR4), on paper this looks like a terrific one-two punch. In reality, drafting one or both means simultaneously investing in the health of Stafford, and/or betting that if Stafford gets hurt, Jimmy Garoppolo would be able to feed his two premier receivers. And even a healthy Stafford -- who's thrown only 54 TD passes in his last 40 starts -- would struggle to elevate both wideouts. (I explain this in more detail in episode 3 of the FF4W podcast.)
Tutu Atwell (WR95 ADP) and 2024 sixth-rounder Jordan Whittington (WR125) round out this corps. They are, of course, fantasy afterthoughts unless Nacua or Adams gets hurt. A couple years ago, I had thought Atwell's day would come. But the nearly 26-year-old former second-rounder is running out of time.
And since TE tandems usually are fantasy kryptonite, we need to wait and see how second-round rookie Terrance Ferguson (down seven spots this past week to TE36 ADP) fares in August. Battling for the #1 job, Ferguson would be in a superb position to crack the top 20 if Tyler Higbee (up two spots to TE34) weren't in the picture. Both are among many Rams to avoid at their current ADPs. The only guys I'm eyeing are Corum and Hunter.
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